I sent a version of my Hogan's Heroes re-make idea to Tim Goodman and his crew at the TV Talk Machine podcast, and they read it this week and gave some of their thoughts. Listen here from 26:40 on to 31:00 or so.
They were impressed by my HH knowledge, thinking perhaps that profs are above that kind of thing. But I am a child of the 1970's and watched way too much TV, including HH repeats. Indeed, I have thought of myself as Colonel Hogan when I was the senior junior professor at TTU.
Anyhow, I enjoyed my five minutes of podcast fame, especially Tim's suggestion that the McGill chancellor might be thinking about the applying the classic threat to me: having me court-martialed, then shot, and then sent to the Russian front.
Only one quibble--they didn't answer my question--who to cast in the remake of HH? Oh well. A fun podcast anyway.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Quite the Queue
This figure (bigger, more readable version here) makes me feel much better about how long it took to become a Permanent Resident in Canada (about three years once we got serious about turning in the paperwork). Of course, it took longer here as there is a Quebec round that precedes the Canadian round. Anyhow, legal immigration to the US is even less of a picnic than I thought.
We Don't Need No Stinking Amendments
Actually, yes, we do. This Slate piece suggests that Elana Kagan use her hearings to education people about the US Constitution. That is, not just the document written at the end of the 18th century, but the amendments since then as well. Even if one omits the US Supreme Court's role in interpreting the document, the document itself has been revised, including to correct for defects like how African-Americans were originally treated. Equal protection under the law--pretty fundamental stuff.
Anyhow, I doubt that Kagan will follow the advice given, but this process may just remind people that the Constitution is more than the stuff listed before the Bill of Rights. I hope so.
Anyhow, I doubt that Kagan will follow the advice given, but this process may just remind people that the Constitution is more than the stuff listed before the Bill of Rights. I hope so.
Karzai's Decline (cont)
More analysis of the resignations of key security officials in Kabul.
So, it is striking but not surprising that a term used to raise questions about the future of Iraq has now been applied here:
“This is the beginning of the unraveling of the Afghan government,” said Haron Meer, a political analyst and former aide to Ahmed Shah Massoud, the leader of the Northern Alliance, which fought the Taliban when they ruled Afghanistan.
The blame seems to be placed on Obama:
The two men who resigned over the weekend, Interior Minister Hanif Atmar and the intelligence director, Amrullah Saleh, had strong relationships with American and British officials and were seen as being among the most competent of his cabinet members, said several Western officials in Kabul. Mr. Saleh, in particular, had built an intelligence agency that the West had come to depend on in a region where reliable partners are hard to find, they said.But the following is not news:
Their ready dismissals have left the sense that, in trying to ensure his own survival, Mr. Karzai will not hesitate to make decisions counter to the interests of his staunchest Western allies or the Afghan government as a whole, or even to make decisions that seem counter to his own long-term interests.This is just part of the pattern. When running for re-election, Karzai essentially ran against NATO by focusing on the collateral damage ISAF was causing rather than the direct damage the Taliban were inflicting. He then added notorious human rights abusers to his campaign team. Then there is that business about rigging an election he was almost sure to win. The funny thing is that this is one of the times that the US and its allies really did try to bet on institutions and not individuals so much, but Karzai has made that difficult. Now, he has made it impossible as he undermines the two key institutions that are integral to the counter-insurgency campaign--the Ministry of Interior and the intelligence service.
So, it is striking but not surprising that a term used to raise questions about the future of Iraq has now been applied here:
“This is the beginning of the unraveling of the Afghan government,” said Haron Meer, a political analyst and former aide to Ahmed Shah Massoud, the leader of the Northern Alliance, which fought the Taliban when they ruled Afghanistan.
The blame seems to be placed on Obama:
“The root of this is the perception that President Karzai got last year from the kind of cold reception that he got from the American administration, and that made him feel insecure,” said Ahmed Ali Jalali, who was Afghanistan’s interior minister from 2003 to 2005.There is one basic problem with this--it gets the timeline wrong. Karzai was already busy undermining the government and ISAF before Obama's deliberations last fall. Perhaps Obama has made Karzai less secure. Then again, Karzai was plenty secure when Bush was his buddy with the weekly video conference, and Karzai was not doing too much to help out. Still, it does appear to be the case that either a second term or the Obama limited surge has perhaps encouraged Karzai to act against the interests of his donors/supporters from outside the country. But the gamble is his, as he is the one most likely to be swinging from a lamppost if he encourages the US and its allies to depart.
When a Bad Law Looks Good
Today's Montreal Gazette (yes, it is known for being biased in the language debates) has letters to the editor by Anglophones complaining about the limited language choice of Bill 103 but also a frontpage story where the leader of the Parti Quebecois, Pauline Marois, met with a group of language hawks on the other side of the debate, seeking to mobilize against Bill 103 for giving too much choice to the Anglophones. Amongst the groups joining this "mobilization" are a few that are quite radical and have threatened violence on occasion.
So, Bill 103, which essentially tries to throw a patch over the problem and minimize the fallout for the current government, looks a bit better than the PQ's alternative: invoking the notwithstanding clause and end the English private school option for everyone. Marois thinks that using this clause that overrides the Canadian Charter of Rights is no big deal--that the majority of folks in Quebec have the right to do what they want. Again, the wonderful irony that a previously oppressed minority in Canada does not mind imposing a tyranny of majority when it gets the chance.
However, there is one problem here: recent polls show that there are significant majorities in all language groups that favor educational choice. Neither the Liberals nor the PQ is playing to this majority, but the Liberals are closer to the median than the PQ. Hard not to be when the PQ is captured by its extreme wing. The Liberals have governed for a long time in Quebec, and there is some exhaustion. Yet, it may be the case that they would still win the next election if the PQ keeps moving further and further to an extreme end of the spectrum. Marois is somewhat held hostage by the hawks in her party, so she may end up having to represent a platform in the next election that is unappealing to the majority of Quebec folks. On the other hand, maybe the Anglophones will not turn out so much since the Liberals have disappointed again.
I just hope we can get three more years of Liberal rule, so my daughter can make it through high school without having to change schools or us to move out of province in response to a PQ revision of Bill 103.
So, Bill 103, which essentially tries to throw a patch over the problem and minimize the fallout for the current government, looks a bit better than the PQ's alternative: invoking the notwithstanding clause and end the English private school option for everyone. Marois thinks that using this clause that overrides the Canadian Charter of Rights is no big deal--that the majority of folks in Quebec have the right to do what they want. Again, the wonderful irony that a previously oppressed minority in Canada does not mind imposing a tyranny of majority when it gets the chance.
However, there is one problem here: recent polls show that there are significant majorities in all language groups that favor educational choice. Neither the Liberals nor the PQ is playing to this majority, but the Liberals are closer to the median than the PQ. Hard not to be when the PQ is captured by its extreme wing. The Liberals have governed for a long time in Quebec, and there is some exhaustion. Yet, it may be the case that they would still win the next election if the PQ keeps moving further and further to an extreme end of the spectrum. Marois is somewhat held hostage by the hawks in her party, so she may end up having to represent a platform in the next election that is unappealing to the majority of Quebec folks. On the other hand, maybe the Anglophones will not turn out so much since the Liberals have disappointed again.
I just hope we can get three more years of Liberal rule, so my daughter can make it through high school without having to change schools or us to move out of province in response to a PQ revision of Bill 103.
Monday, June 7, 2010
Is This Depressing or What?
A comedian has updated "We Didn't Start the Fire."
So sad. The original by Billy Joel had some good things in it. This one, not so much.
So sad. The original by Billy Joel had some good things in it. This one, not so much.
Blog Post Shortage? Blame Hollywood
This time last year, my young blog spent many a post on the new summer movies. This year, not so much. We have seen Iron Man 2. That is it thus far. Few movies have energized the Spews to go to the theaters.
Robin Hood? Nay. The Killers? Dead. The Prince of Persia? I think it has the power to stop time, and not in a good way. Shrek4? Eventually. We are looking forward to A-Team 2.0 and 2.1 (Expendables).
HP 7.1 is not due out until the fall, although there is a new trailer---some solace.
Robin Hood? Nay. The Killers? Dead. The Prince of Persia? I think it has the power to stop time, and not in a good way. Shrek4? Eventually. We are looking forward to A-Team 2.0 and 2.1 (Expendables).
HP 7.1 is not due out until the fall, although there is a new trailer---some solace.
Continuing Bad News from Afghanistan
First, a piece in the NYT that explains in greater detail something hinted about in the previous story: that the Afghan private contractors are either hitting the convoys or paying others to do so to create a need for their services. And, of course, some of these guys are President Karzai. Lovely.
Second, and, more importantly, President Karzai has fired his Minister of Interior (as mentioned above) and Intel chief. The claim is that they failed to stop violence aimed at a recent peace conference. The reality is that these guys may not be big fans of Karzai's reconciliation effort.
This is bad news as the Minister of Interior did seem to be doing a better job of combating corruption and building the police force than his predecessors (and his successor?). To be clear, we should be betting and investing on institutions, not individuals. But when the President undermines the institutions because of the individuals running them, then he is doing the country and the outsiders no favors.
The news out of Kabul is just getting increasingly depressing. Not a great Monday.
“People think the insurgency and the government are separate, and that is just not always the case,” another NATO official in Kabul said. “What we are finding is that they are often bound up together.”
“There are thousands of people that have been paid by both civilian and military organizations to escort their convoys, and they all pose a problem,” said Hanif Atmar, the Afghan interior minister. (Mr. Atmar resigned under pressure from President Karzai on Sunday.) “The Afghan people are not ready to accept the private companies’ providing public security.”
Second, and, more importantly, President Karzai has fired his Minister of Interior (as mentioned above) and Intel chief. The claim is that they failed to stop violence aimed at a recent peace conference. The reality is that these guys may not be big fans of Karzai's reconciliation effort.
This is bad news as the Minister of Interior did seem to be doing a better job of combating corruption and building the police force than his predecessors (and his successor?). To be clear, we should be betting and investing on institutions, not individuals. But when the President undermines the institutions because of the individuals running them, then he is doing the country and the outsiders no favors.
The news out of Kabul is just getting increasingly depressing. Not a great Monday.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Why are People Racist?
Roger Ebert asks this question in a very eloquent blog post. He does not really know. But he does point the way--empathy or its absence. Of course, there are some who apparently believe that empathy is a pathway to fascism, but, of course, that is just incredibly stupid.
Momma, Don't Let Your Kids Grow Up to be PhDs
Yet another story about how dismal it is for newly minted PhDs. There is no question that today's academic job market is the worst in my lifetime. The question is whether this is a temporary condition or a trend. Probably a bit of both, as universities have been hit hard by endowment shrinkage, state/provincial budget cuts, and the like but also an "unsustainable" business plan. This last phrase was uttered by a senior Canadian poli sci prof at last week's Canadian Poli Sci Assn's reception for international relations types.
I have a handful of PhD students entering the market soon, and I think they can do well. But would I encourage folks finishing their B.A.'s now to go into PhD programs? Only those PhD programs that serve as pathways not just to the academic world (that would be the sciences, engineering). At least the stuff in poli sci is far more interesting than law school and the education is far cheaper. On the other hand, it takes twice as much time. These days, neither grad school nor law school are good strategies for kicking the can down the road--for delaying decisions about the entry into an adult life. These credentials are simply no longer guarantees of good jobs.
Students will need to weigh the opportunity costs of the time spent in grad school or law school, the path dependence these choices seem to create, and the financial costs of debt built up, and compare them with the joys of academia or law versus other modes of employment.
The conclusion, as always, is that we are a bunch of crappy guilds.
I have a handful of PhD students entering the market soon, and I think they can do well. But would I encourage folks finishing their B.A.'s now to go into PhD programs? Only those PhD programs that serve as pathways not just to the academic world (that would be the sciences, engineering). At least the stuff in poli sci is far more interesting than law school and the education is far cheaper. On the other hand, it takes twice as much time. These days, neither grad school nor law school are good strategies for kicking the can down the road--for delaying decisions about the entry into an adult life. These credentials are simply no longer guarantees of good jobs.
Students will need to weigh the opportunity costs of the time spent in grad school or law school, the path dependence these choices seem to create, and the financial costs of debt built up, and compare them with the joys of academia or law versus other modes of employment.
The conclusion, as always, is that we are a bunch of crappy guilds.
Uruzgan: Microcosm?
The NYT has an interesting piece about one of the powers that be in Uruzgan--a province in Southern Afghanistan. Uruzgan or Oruzgan has been one of three key provinces in Regional Command South, getting less attention for its insurgents and more for the challenges ahead. The Dutch have had the lead there, but have been scheduled to depart this year and the Aussies, who have been based there as well, refusing to take this lead position.
Well, this piece largely omits the Dutch and the Aussies, focusing on a warlord/entrepreneur who has combined private security contracting (securing the main road to Kandahar) with other business interests plus working alongside US Special Forces. The article shows the tremendous contradictions and tradeoffs between security, governance and development. This guy, Matiullah, is providing security for the convoys (although he may also be making his efforts more necessary either through protection racket like tactics or by encouraging the Taliban to attack to make his services necessary), but also building mosques and developing businesses. He is independent of the government, and seems to delight in subverting its efforts to develop some competency.
And, of course, he is tied to Ahmed Wali Karzai, President Karzai's brother and the strongman running Kandahar and much of the rest of the south.
The more and more I follow this stuff, the more and more I think it may be the case that Obama's reinforcement surge decision last fall might have been part of a larger exit strategy: "We did all we could do and it didn't work. Building on the Afghan government is building on sand. It is time for us to reduce our commitment." The plan as it stands now: to build Afghan security services seems to be foundering not when it comes to the Afghan Army but the Afghan police. This article shows that there are better jobs for those who might staff the police, so who is left to do this highly dangerous but also lucrative job?
Well, this piece largely omits the Dutch and the Aussies, focusing on a warlord/entrepreneur who has combined private security contracting (securing the main road to Kandahar) with other business interests plus working alongside US Special Forces. The article shows the tremendous contradictions and tradeoffs between security, governance and development. This guy, Matiullah, is providing security for the convoys (although he may also be making his efforts more necessary either through protection racket like tactics or by encouraging the Taliban to attack to make his services necessary), but also building mosques and developing businesses. He is independent of the government, and seems to delight in subverting its efforts to develop some competency.
And, of course, he is tied to Ahmed Wali Karzai, President Karzai's brother and the strongman running Kandahar and much of the rest of the south.
Both Ahmed Wali Karzai and Mr. Matiullah are associates of Jan Mohammed Khan, a former governor of Oruzgan Province and Mr. Matiullah’s father-in-law. Mr. Khan was removed from Oruzgan Province at the insistence of the Dutch in 2006 because of concerns that he was close to the drug trade. He is now an adviser to President Karzai.I have become increasingly ambivalent about the mission, and news like this is not very encouraging. Again, the question is one of choices and tradeoffs. There are few good options in Uruzgan or in Afghanistan in general. Walking away would reduce the direct military, economic and political costs of the effort, but civil war in Afghanistan and another great power "defeated" by religiously motivated Afghans would have ramifications.
The more and more I follow this stuff, the more and more I think it may be the case that Obama's reinforcement surge decision last fall might have been part of a larger exit strategy: "We did all we could do and it didn't work. Building on the Afghan government is building on sand. It is time for us to reduce our commitment." The plan as it stands now: to build Afghan security services seems to be foundering not when it comes to the Afghan Army but the Afghan police. This article shows that there are better jobs for those who might staff the police, so who is left to do this highly dangerous but also lucrative job?
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Progress in Afghanistan
This blog post suggests that things are not going well in Afghanistan. Why? Mostly because of the governance problem, but there is more to it than that. Check it out.
Favorite Podcasts thus far
I started listening to podcasts about two years ago, I guess. They are especially good for either shorter trips through traffic jams or longer ones to Ottawa or to family events down south. My favorites are an eclectic bunch, with none too serious.
Any suggestions?
- My favorite is the BS Report with Bill Simmons, ESPN's Sports Guy. I would follow Simmons even if he did not major in Poli Sci long ago. He mixes up sports (he is a fan of Boston teams) with pop culture (he has Chuck Klosterman on semi-regularly along with some of the folks listed below, he is a very avid fan of stuff I don't watch--reality TV).
- I also follow the 30 for 30 podcast which covers the ESPN documentary series with which Simmons is involved.
- Firewall and Iceberg. Two east coast TV critics: Alan Sepinwall and Dan Fienberg chat about TV each week. They are reasonable, insightful (agree with me a lot), and have some good repartee between them.
- The TV Talk Machine. Tim Goodman, a TV critic for an San Francisco newspaper, meets semi-regularly with three other people or so, with imitations ranging from poor to semi-good of dead and living celebrities and TV people (Walter Cronkite, Bill Walton, French existential woman, and now Al Gore). It is an extraordinarily silly podcast that occasionally discusses TV.
- I look forward to their next one as they hinted in the current one that they will respond to my email about Hogan's Heroes, reimagined.
- I also follow Goodman's appearances on KFOG--a much shorter but still interesting listen.
- The Adam Carolla Show. Carolla's stuff varies, but he has great guests, the conversations go everywhere and he does some recordings of his live appearances at comedy clubs. Definitely not safe at work or for the kids.
- The Poker Edge. Phil Gordon, who has taught me much about poker via his books and his old Celebrity Poker show, hosts a show on ESPN with Andrew Feldman. It covers poker news and has interviews with many different folks in the poker universe.
- The Moth Podcast. The Moth is a story-telling group and they post stories that are about fifteen minutes and are always true. Some funny, some sad, always interesting and always well-told.
- The Reduced Shakespeare Company podcast. We are big fans of the RSC. Their original show was to present all of Shakespeare's works in about 90 minutes. They went on to do the Bible, American History, the Great Books, the Millennium, and, most recently, Sports [They even reduced all of Lost into 15 minutes]. Their podcasts not only plug their own shows but also usually have interviews with folks in the theater business. So, I have learned about auditions, booking, transportation, and more. Fun and fascinating stuff. If they would only tour in Montreal, the entire Spew family would be most pleased.
- Roland Paris turned me onto Fresh Air, a National Public Radio interview show with Terry Gross. She has a good sense of humor and asks good questions for interesting people.
Any suggestions?
Last Lost Post (or not)
I was looking through my blog and found a post in February suggesting some bets about Lost before this last season started, so I thought it would be fun (for me, anyway) to see how I did.
Changing Attitudes
This op-ed by Charles Blow tries to explain increases in American tolerance of gays and lesbians (even perhaps homosexuals).
For the first time, men may actually be more tolerant than women of "gay and lesbian relations."
Why? More people now know someone who is out of the closet (we always knew gays and lesbians, we just didn't know their orientation). The second explanation is a bit more surprising--that men have become more tolerant in general of "others." This would not seem to be reflected in the rhetoric of certain parties, but the reality of diversity (that it is actually not a bad thing) may have penetrated attitudes. Third, well, "Virulent homophobes are increasingly being exposed for engaging in homosexuality."
I would vote for the first two more than the third, especially the second. That is, political correctness in the best sense of it is that it is no longer ok to say that you hate or are intolerant of a class of people. Lots of people are critical of PC and rightly so when it means knee jerk reactions that close off debate. BUT over the past twenty or thirty years, it has become relatively unacceptable to say racist, misogynist, and even now homophobic slurs in public. This does not mean that racism, sexism and homophobia no longer exist (sorry, Stephen Colbert), but that the social costs of uttering such slurs have gone up. It is just no longer seen as taken for granted that one can diminish others unless one is very certain that the people hearing the slur are all like-minded. And that is less likely than it once was.
With all of the anti-immigration anxiety, all of the Tea Party demagoguery, all of the Obama backlash, it is nice to know that there are some broader, perhaps more enduring trends, about attitudes that are more tolerant. And if it is driven by homophobes being driven out of the closet themselves, then that is pretty cool, too.
For the first time, men may actually be more tolerant than women of "gay and lesbian relations."
Why? More people now know someone who is out of the closet (we always knew gays and lesbians, we just didn't know their orientation). The second explanation is a bit more surprising--that men have become more tolerant in general of "others." This would not seem to be reflected in the rhetoric of certain parties, but the reality of diversity (that it is actually not a bad thing) may have penetrated attitudes. Third, well, "Virulent homophobes are increasingly being exposed for engaging in homosexuality."
I would vote for the first two more than the third, especially the second. That is, political correctness in the best sense of it is that it is no longer ok to say that you hate or are intolerant of a class of people. Lots of people are critical of PC and rightly so when it means knee jerk reactions that close off debate. BUT over the past twenty or thirty years, it has become relatively unacceptable to say racist, misogynist, and even now homophobic slurs in public. This does not mean that racism, sexism and homophobia no longer exist (sorry, Stephen Colbert), but that the social costs of uttering such slurs have gone up. It is just no longer seen as taken for granted that one can diminish others unless one is very certain that the people hearing the slur are all like-minded. And that is less likely than it once was.
With all of the anti-immigration anxiety, all of the Tea Party demagoguery, all of the Obama backlash, it is nice to know that there are some broader, perhaps more enduring trends, about attitudes that are more tolerant. And if it is driven by homophobes being driven out of the closet themselves, then that is pretty cool, too.
Friday, June 4, 2010
Puzzling Identities
If one is undead, does it matter if one was a Nazi when one was alive?
Thanks to the Spew kid for the link.
Thanks to the Spew kid for the link.
If Dogs Had Political Power
We would be in much better shape in Afghanistan:
Anyhow, it is an interesting regular contribution about another dimension of past and present conflict.
Say what you want about the war in Afghanistan from the human perspective, but I can assure you that the Afghanistan dog community is totally pro-American. Maybe they're having a peace jirga themselves, at some kennel in Kandahar.[From a regular column on war dogs at ricks.foreignpolicy.com]Ricks has had a guest blogger post about dogs in past and present wars. Always interesting stuff. Apparently, American soldiers attract strays no matter where they do. Of course, other dogs are bred and trained to assist the troops, such as mine detection.
Anyhow, it is an interesting regular contribution about another dimension of past and present conflict.
Sometimes I Think We Sort Too Soon
I am shocked and dismayed that lil' Steve failed to invoke the proper Harry Potter reference for his post on gifted kindergarten programs. Otherwise, his post is on target--I had no clue we had such programs at all.
What Stats Are Good For?
Identifying trends! While correlation does not equal causation, a temptation to which many folks using quantitative methods succumb, numbers are pretty good for identifying trends if used correctly. This piece in Slate [HT to Pete] talks about three non-trends, showing that the echo chamber that is today's internet/media interface tend to repeat the same story and tend to have no sense of the past.
Some things are new and increasing in frequency, some things are old and occurring at a fairly consistent rate, and somethings are declining. How do we know? Well, watching TV news is probably not the way to figure it out as they have incentives to play up anything as new.
The problem again is one of cognition, as we tend to believe what we expect to be the reality. My daughter this morning was miffed about a letter to the local paper comparing the Liberal members of the Quebec assembly to Ostriches for veritably sticking their heads in the ground while their party proposes legislation that harms the interests of the Anglophone voters. Why was she miffed? Because Ostriches do not stick their heads in the ground.
I guess what she recommends is that more folks watch Mythbusters.
Some things are new and increasing in frequency, some things are old and occurring at a fairly consistent rate, and somethings are declining. How do we know? Well, watching TV news is probably not the way to figure it out as they have incentives to play up anything as new.
The problem again is one of cognition, as we tend to believe what we expect to be the reality. My daughter this morning was miffed about a letter to the local paper comparing the Liberal members of the Quebec assembly to Ostriches for veritably sticking their heads in the ground while their party proposes legislation that harms the interests of the Anglophone voters. Why was she miffed? Because Ostriches do not stick their heads in the ground.
I guess what she recommends is that more folks watch Mythbusters.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
To Err is Human
To make an error in baseball is inevitable--built into the statistics. Last night, a pitcher was robbed of a perfect game because an umpire got a call wrong. Not just any call wrong, but the one that would have been the last out. Pretty unfortunate. The good news is that most of the folks involved are handling it pretty well.
The really strange thing is that this would have been the third perfect game in a relatively young season when baseball has never had two in a season before.
What can we learn from the reactions to this event? That people read into an event what they want. Cognitive consistency has been a recurring theme in my blog (here and here, for instance). So, I guess I should be self-aware enough and realize that I am seeing cognitive consistency because that is what I tend to see everywhere due to my own bias to see cognitive consistency.
The really strange thing is that this would have been the third perfect game in a relatively young season when baseball has never had two in a season before.
What can we learn from the reactions to this event? That people read into an event what they want. Cognitive consistency has been a recurring theme in my blog (here and here, for instance). So, I guess I should be self-aware enough and realize that I am seeing cognitive consistency because that is what I tend to see everywhere due to my own bias to see cognitive consistency.
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