Monday, October 31, 2016

But the Screaming and Shouting

It is all over but the screaming and shouting.  Huh?  I return from a month in Japan, and I get hit quickly in my short visit to the office with questions about the US election.  Seems like Canadians are just as, if not more eager, than their American Liberal friends to wet the bed, as my favorite political podcast puts it.  As always, I focus on the fundamentals:
  • HRC has heaps more money and is using to buy good ads rather than lousy hats
  • HRC has a strong organization, so she can and already has gotten out the vote.  Trump can't spell GOTV.
  • The electoral college favors the Democrats in any year as of late.
  • Trump has alienated women, who are more than 50% of the electorate.
  • Same goes for African-Americans, Asian-Americans, disabled people, Latinos, Jews, and others who are not fond of white supremacists.
  • Really should mention Trump's misogyny one more time.
  • HRC has a first rate group of surrogates/allies--both Obamas, both Bidens, Warren and Sanders.  Trump's allies are as deplorable as a good chunk of his supporters--Gingrich, Guiliani, Christie, etc.
What about the latest email story?  Let confirmation bias be your guide--if one cared about the email stuff, one was already not going to vote for HRC.  If one didn't care, this is not going to change anything.

What about the tightening polls?  First, poll averaging!!! It ain't about the latest poll but the trends.  Second, this is mostly about the GOP voters coming home, more than Trump somehow attracting HRC voters. Third, lots of people have already voted--early voting and all that--and the reports seem to suggest that HRC has done far better than Trump, not surprising, but also better than Obama four years ago.

Which gets to the big question: what states can Trump win that Obama won four years ago?  Iowa... maybe Ohio.  Which states will Trump lose that Romney won?  North Carolina.   I would still bet on HRC winning Florida. 

And when folks say Brexit to me, I respond thusly: far more/better polls here; US is 2x as diverse as UK; Brexit was not gendered; not nearly the disparity in money and organization in the UK as in the US; electoral college, electoral college, and electoral college.

The good news: Dems don't have to worry about complacency.  It is all over but some of the voting and much of the screaming and shouting.  No need to panic.  The only real questions left are:
  1. Do the Democrats pick up the Senate?  Probably.
  2. Do the Democrats make big gains in the House?  No.
  3. Will Trump be a sore loser or a super-sore loser?  Yes.


Anonymous said...

One more thing about Brexit - referendums aren't parties or candidates, thus limiting partisan effects amongst the electorate. And even in the best case scenario, most analysts predicted that the Dems would lose the House by a few seats (the Republican Civil War will proceed apace).

Best way to gauge the state of the race is where the HRC campaign is moving resources. She'll win NC, probably squeaks by in Florida 2012 style, Ohio and Iowa are pure toss-ups, and Arizona still interestingly looks competitive. Polling is going to screw up Utah (McMuffin!) + Alaska, and the ghost of the McCaskill/Akin Senate race lurks on Halloween. But no, there appears to be one default reaction from US liberals:

Anonymous said...