Trump could lose because:
- careless statements alienated key constituencies (veterans, women, disabled people, etc).
- his campaign staff were third string at best and some (Bannon) seemed more focused on destroying the GOP.
- he alienated the GOP establishment, attacking Kasich and thus losing the chance to turn out the vote in Ohio and other places.
- he spent more money on hats than on ads. Seriously, do campaign ads matter? This would be a perfect time to draw the contrast since HRC has many more and much better ads, but the effect of this will be hard to discern due to the other stuff
- he has no real Get out the Vote effort--I have been joking that Trump can't spell GOTV.
- he is a misogynist and women happen to be more than 50% of the electorate.
- Pence is just an awful sidekick. Would be Palin-esque if not for Palin and Trump lowering expectations.
- he didn't spend much money compared to HRC.
While much has been said about the failure of 'The Party Decides' this year (http://bit.ly/2fh9hDX), most poli-sci assumptions about the effectiveness of presidential campaigns have have not been wrong.
"Grifter emulates tried-and-tested strategy to enter the race for a quick buck, then things got out of hand"
is the easiest summary.
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