Betting Time? A Recurring Spew Post

I am back on the mailing list of sportsbooks promoting their politics wagers.  This sports book agrees with me--that impeachment is not likely:

Trump to Leave Office via Impeachment	American Odds	Fractional Odds	Implied Probability (%)
No	-200	1/2	66.67%
Yes	+150	3/2	40%

Note the "leave office" part--that when the press mentions Trump getting impeached, it can be confusing--whether the House of Representatives votes to send the impeachment case to the Senate (which has happened a couple of times--Johnson, Clinton) or whether the President loses his office after the Senate votes 2/3s or more to do so (hasn't happened yet).

Still tempted to bet on yes, because it would be delightful.  But nope.

The site also lists odds for who will win the 2020 election.  Trump is the favorite at 3/2 with Kamala Harris at 10 to 1 (4 to 1 to win the Dem nomination) and Bernie at 14 to 1.  The strangest ones?  Ben Shapiro and Orrin Hatch at 20 to 1 to win the GOP nomination?  Oprah at 33 to 1 and the Rock at 50 to 1?  Tulsi Gabbard at 66 to 1?  Who would bet on her?  I mean, she has the same odds as John Kasich and Hillary Clinton....

Overall, the Dems are slight faves to win the 2020 election: -130 (bet $130 to win 100) and the GOP is a slight underdog at +110 (bet $110 to win $100).


Anyhow, interesting to see these lines.  I do wonder about the "next person to leave the Trump Administration" lines.  This site does not have those.  Darn.

I have no idea who will get the Democratic nomination in 2020, and, yeah, I suck at predicting American election outcomes.... All I know is that if Pence is the GOP candidate, the odds will shift because he has, as they used to say, zero charisma.