Manila Briefings: Thinking Through Some Of the Big Implications

 After three days of briefings in Manila with all kinds of sharp people, I found myself thinking about some of the bigger implications.  To be clear, I am not an Indo-Pacific expert, so some of this might be common knowledge, widely accepted wisdom, or incredibly dim, uninformed stuff.  But that is why this is a Semi-Spew--no lit reviews, all half-baked thinking.  You let me know which ideas have merit, please.

1.  Canada could get sucked into a Philippines-PRC conflict.  People worry about a PRC-Taiwan war having global implications and rightly so, but the Philippines has been involved in a steady escalation of tensions.  It could be that despite their best efforts, things get hot.   The PRC already essentially owns the South China Sea aka West Philippines Sea, and they could push harder or ultimately cause some deaths while enforcing "their sovereignty" over this space.  With Canadian naval vessels visiting 4 times a year, it is not far fetched for Canada to be caught in the middle of something.  Canada is not an ally (only the US is), but it is a partner and a significant one.  I am not saying Canada should flee, but I am saying folks need to be thinking about this.

2.  Who is asymmetric now?  China is now the strongest player in the region with the US distracted and with China far more committed.  Plus the US Navy can't even feed itself right now.  Before Pearl Harbor, everyone in the higher levels of the US armed forces knew that if Japan attacked, it would hit the Philippines early and hard and the US would not be able to save them.  The successful first strike at Pearl made that more obvious, but it was always the case.  Now?   If China attacked the Philippines, it would take time for the US to really respond (which it wouldn't under Trump).  So, just as Ukraine was on its own in February of 2022, the Filipinos need to be creative about how to make the Chinese miserable.  Being the most powerful makes one the most extended and ironically quite vulnerable.  

3. Can they count on Canada?  One slide had a bullet on about working with the Canada in the long term with consistent planning and such, and I had to wonder: can Canada be consistent?  Not just a matter of the Conservatives coming to power and focusing elsewhere, but also the Liberals are focused on cutting spending and, yes, the car deal with China may lead Carney's government to try to avoid offending China at the expense of the interests of the Philippines.  I would not bet a lot on Canada's staying power here.  On the other hand, the same force keeping Canada engaged in Ukraine could work here--diaspora politics.  Lots of Filipino-Canadian voters--about one million Filipinos in Canada.

4.  In one briefing, the Filipinos discussed one of the things Canada brings is expertise on HADR logistiics--humanitarian assistance/disaster relief.  This runs directly counter to the priorities of the Canadian Armed Forces.  The CAF find emergency operations to be a distraction, a drain, and would like to get out the business.  The mantra of being a last responder, not a first responder.  Provincial-federal burden sharing problems will not go away, so the CAF is stuck.  So, they might just consider how their experiences doing this home and abroad is actually an important bit of capital that is handy when Canada wants to be seen as relevant.  The military is an instrumental of national power, as they all know, and it turns out a component of their power is their domestic ops/HADR experience.  Maybe value it rather than try to dodge it.

5.  Canada keeps trying to get the big trade score: China, then India, then China.  There are more than 100 million people in the Philippines, hundreds of millions in Indonesia, and so on.  Rather than putting all of Canada's trade eggs into one big unreliable, coercive basket, how about trying to have a portfolio of trading partners here.  Spend less political capital on the impossible big score and focus more on managing improved trade with a bundle of countries, none that can engage in significant coercion against Canada.  Just a thought. 

Manila Briefings: Targeting, Gender, Ships, and Ships

 The last day of this familiarization tour was perhaps the best.  And not just because I finally got the french toast I had been seeking. 

small sat receiver for the CAF unit

The first session was over at the targeting tent: four of the five eyes countries had units in a tent (ac-ed, thankfully) doing the targeting for the upcoming exercise (later this week, a very big, multilateral military exercise will be taking place--we kept running into CAF members who are here for it).  The UK, Aussies, Kiwis, and Canadians were all in the same place.  Each one had their own targeting process--getting the intel, analyzing it, getting an idea of which weapon would be best, getting the legal advisor to vet it, and so on.  Interesting stuff.  They also showed us their satellite setup--not Starlink (Canada seems to be out of the Starlink biz for secret stuff, and phew!) but webone.  I got to ask questions about caveats and such.  Nice flashbacks to my third book and the origin story of my civ-mil work.

The next session was with the Armed Forces of the Philippines gender and development unit.  The officers were mostly women, discussing where they are at today.  It was an interesting conversation, glad to see Women, Peace, and Security taken seriously out here even if Whiskey Pete is removing it from all US stuff.   The swag started getting most impressive.

We then went to the Philippines Coast Guard HQ where they quite literally rolled out a red carpet for our Assistant Deputy Minister for Public Affairs, and very much kept the rest of us off of it.  They gave her a bunch of swag--it was a most impressive effort.  The conversation mostly focused on what Canada could do to help them with their rapid expansion--4x the personnel over the last ten years or so and basically tripling the number of ships.  Their mantra was chill but prevail--avoid escalating with China but don't roll over either.  Maritime heartland was a phrase that was used several times, and it struck me as both strange and apt.

The last session involved us going over to the HMCS Charlottetown, which is here for the exercise.  We got onboard, got a tour of part of the ship including the ops centre, and then chatted with its executive officer and captain.  I teased them about the crappy name for the line of ships to be replacing this frigate and its kin.  The next ships are currently called "River-Class Destroyers" which sounds odd since they will not be fighting on rivers, but named after rivers.  This would be like calling either the Iowa-class battleships or the Ohio-class nuclear ballistic missile subs "state-class."  It is not only an American tradition to name a class of ships after the first one in the class--the Halifax-class frigates for example.  

Anyhow, we got to ask a bunch of questions, and another of my peeves showed up: professional means what?   In reference to encounters with China's ships, so far those meetings have been peaceful and professional.  Because military folks stretch the definition of professional to cover all things that are good and desired.  Anything bad is not professional even if the Chinese fly their planes or sail their ships really really well even as they buzz the Canadian ships or planes.  I think the term professional should describe not what is desired but whether one is being skillful/expert in their vocation.

Overall, I learned a lot this week about the Philippines and the dynamics involving China and the various other players.  I really wish the US was focused here and not on Trump's incredibly dumb wars.  On the other hand, maybe things are going better here because he is not focused on this place?  I have one last post about the bigger implications, and I may write an op-ed based on the things I learned this week.  It was definitely worth the time.  I just hope the Iran crisis-induced fuel shortages don't get in the way of m y going home tomorrow. 

Manila Briefings: Defense in A Dangerous Time

 Today, we had a series of high level briefings, and we got a good idea of where the Philippines stands in this part of the world: on the edge of a World War.  Ooops, too dramatic?  The day was mostly based on two sessions--one with senior civilian folks and one with senior military officers.  We then met with some think tank folks, but I was pretty tired and left early.

In the first session with a senior civilian defense official, I asked about their view of the likelihood of China attacking Taiwan and what would the Philippines do.  Re the latter, if things get hot, they can't avoid being involved given how close the Philippines are to Taiwan.  Just as Japan had to attack the Philippines to get to Indonesia (Dutch East Indies at the time) at the start of the Pacific War, China would have to clear its flank when attacking Taiwan.  Plus there are a few hundred thousand Filipinos there which also increases the stakes.  However, this official argued that China will probably not attack--that the war would be very costly and that they can get their way via Taiwan's domestic politics.  But, yes, China is the only country where the legitimacy of the regime hangs on foreign policy.

The official indicated that there was still much convergence with the US--or as I would put it, Trump/Hegseth haven't messed up the relationship yet.  But the Philippines are not satisfied with just the one ally--they are working hard to get other partners (if not allies): Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Indonesia, etc.

One thing that was mentioned yesterday and came back: Carney's Davos speech resonated.  That the middle powers need to work together.  

We then went to the military's hq.  I was most struck by how the command staff was entirely army--the only Navy folks who spoke were captains, not admirals.  The assessment of the situation with China in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea is pretty dire.  That China is steadily increasing the pace of its confronations.

How are the Philippines avoiding escalation?  "Maximum tolerance"--not responding to China's escalations with increased escalation, but documenting China's moves and relying on international law.  That the International Court sided with the Philippines over China's island building is a huge deal.

One of the things Canada brings to the Philippines is expertise in HADR--Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Relief.  While the Filiponos have a heap of experience in disaster relief as the most disaster prone country in the world, Canada's logistical expertise is super helpful.  I later pointed out to the Canadian mil folks that despite the CAF wanting to get out of the disaster relief business, it has positive impacts not just on Canadians but on Canada's international relations.

I asked about asymmetric war and lessons from Ukraine, as the Philippines are far weaker than China, so they need to figure out weapons/strategies of the weak (my implied question--what if the Americans don't show up or are late).* The answer was: the Ukrainians are already giving us help!  And they are also watching Iran for lessons on how to make things difficult for stronger navies in narrow waterways (they didn't put it quite like that).  Part of the answer is drone, counter-drone, anti-aircraft/missile.  

Overall, a very fascinating day, putting much of yesterday's stuff into context.  Tomorrow and Sunday are tourism before one more day of briefings with a focus on navy stuff--meeting Canadian sailors from a visiting ship and with Philippines Coast Guard folks.

Manila, Day 1: Heat is Exhausting Edition

National park

 I am in Manila, capital of the Philippines, as the Canadian Department of National Defence is running a junket of experts or influencers or whatever I am to learn about the new headquarters they are standing up for a three star officer and to get a better understanding of the Indo-Pacific.

 

 

To be clear, the flight, hotel, and much of the food is on me and the other participant.  This has been the policy for quite some time, so I covered my expenses for similar trips to Latvia and Portugal.  For the trip long ago in 2007 to Afghanistan, that was on DND's dime.  They had a far greater incentive to share info (or conduct info ops) back then, resulting in multiple trips with larger groups.  I say this upfront as I have been clear to DND that their current policy selects against younger (and therefore more diverse) scholars as they tend to have less flexibility and resources in their grant funding.  This almost certainly had an impact on the attendance--two people.   I know I am lucky that I can do this kind of thing.  The other participant is from a Canadian think tank with mysterious funding.

UNESCO protected 
Cathedral

This policy may be changing given the flow of resources into DND, but I am skeptical.  I think fear of being accused by some folks in the media that the military is wasting money, running party trips, may deter a policy change.  Too bad as these trips are very, very helpful for getting very quick, extensive, expansive views of key Canadian missions.  My two books on Afghanistan (one with Dave)benefited greatly from having a brief (just one week) bit of ground experience, getting a sense of the geography, asking questions both in the formal briefings and in other encounters.  The Portugal and especially Latvia trips were similarly helpful in providing an opportunity to drink from the firehose--to learn a lot in very little time.  

Year of the Horse in 
Chinatown

We will be meeting with Canadian embassy folks, senior Filipino officials in the government and in their military, think tank folks, and more.  We will also be doing a bit of tourism together on Saturday--the American Manila Cemetery, the walled city, and a big mall.  We have Sunday free.  Monday, we meet with Filipino military education people and do some naval stuff in the afternoon: their coast guard, a Canadian ship that is here, and more.  I am frequently asked to comment on Canada's Indo-Pacific efforts, so I will be better informed to do so (while being aware that I am, yes, a tool for DND's info ops).

 

 

I have no idea what pissed
these spuds off.

I got here two days early so that I could adjust to the time zone (12 hours difference) and the heat (oh my, the difference).  Yesterday, it was in the high 90s and quite humid.  It didn't feel that bad, but it ultimately kicked my butt in a big way.  I took the local equivalent of an uber out to Chinatown, found a good restaurant, and then walked to a market.  I then walked from there to the big national park with the intent to go to the National Museum.  Along the way, I found two big cathedrals and a memorial to the massacre of Manila in February-March of 1945 (see my next post).  I also stopped by a garden.  I was then so tired I decided to skip the museum for the day and hit a nicely air conditioned mall.  It was full of fun signs.  

Manila is definitely not a walking city--the sidewalks go from wide to thin to non-existent--the distances are quite large between various places, and the traffic is a bit intense.  My adventure today will focus on two spots that are close to each other--the aforementioned museum and the bay.  Much less ambition, hopefully less heat exhaustion.  I had a great conversation with one driver, and, yes, when each driver asks, I say I am Canadian ;)  Which I am, but I am playing down my American id, as so far, Trump is not so popular here. 

So far, the biggest surprise has been how each bank has a guard in front with a very serious pistol-gripped shotgun.  Just as I know I am getting close to an American embassy anywhere in the world, I know I am near a bank when I see one of those guys (haven't seen a woman holding down that job yet).  The other gendered thing is that I have seen plenty of men sitting on the sidewalk watching their phones but no women. 

The big Cathedral has been rebuilt seven times--destroyed by earthquakes six times and by American bombers in World War II.  More on the WWII destruction in my next post after breakfast.  And more on what I learn from the briefings and meetings over the next few days.

 

The New Bipolarity: Where Does Canada Fit Into US-China Rivalry

 Yesterday, one of our two Undergraduate Excellence Scholars, Safia Hafid, led a one-day conference on the changing realities in Asia-Pacific.  She applied for and received a Young MINDS grant which enabled her to bring together seven speakers from a variety of perspectives and backgrounds.  Our CDSN team helped her along the way, but this was her show and she performed wonderfully.  She not only found seven great speakers, but she did a great job of introducing the day, placing the larger question into context, managing the speakers, and moderating the question and answer sessions.  The day flowed smoothly, and I learned a great deal.  I live tweeted the afternoon so you can check out the thread here.  I will summarize some of the major points below (I will post Safia's report once she completes it).  You can watch it in English or French.

Panel 1.
Elizabeth Larus of U of Mary Washington led off by asserting that the US has not declined so much and China has probably peaked.  There was a far amount of consensus on the latter point.  I had heard the "China is going to get old before it gets rich" argument, but hadn't realized how bad their clean water problem is.
Rob Murray of McDonald-Laurier Institute discussed how Canada had spent much effort to develop a somewhat independent path from the US during the Cold War but largely stopped doing so in the US's unipolar moment.  He joined the chorus of folks seeking a strategic foreign policy review... which is not going to happen.
Thomas Christensen of Columbia University argued that the US is still far more powerful than China, but that the key flashpoints are far closer to China, mitigating some American advantages.  With the possibility of a blockade by China's navy and air force, Taiwan has to get what it needs before the fighting starts as resupply is going to be really hard.
In the Q&A, Larus explained why covid is such a threat to Xi: Xi has put much of his rep on zero covid. They vaccinated their young, not their elderly, their shots may not be as good, not as much health infrastructure, so risks of massive waves of deaths if covid breaks out. Christensen had one of the best lines of the day when talking about some far right American voices demanding MOAR: "you can't deter a war by starting one, \"referring to Pompeo's and Bolton's stances who would "love Taiwan to death."

Panel 2.
David Welch of U of Waterloo presented on China's tactics in its various territorial and maritime disputes (NPSIA has a PhD student working on this topic).  One of his most interesting findings is that China seems to be obeying the ruling about South China Seas non-islands.  We just can't say it aloud much.  He reinforced the consensus that Taiwan's term-limited president, Tsai Ing-wen, is handling this all very, very well.
Next was Lynette Ong of U of Toronto.  She argued that Xi Jinping's use of nationalism is now biting him as he is now constrained by ultranationalist forces.  She discussed the pattern of centralization and repression that is going to be challenging to ride.

Panel 3.
Stephanie Carvin, my colleague at NPSIA, discussed the absence of Canada in DC--a short flight but apparently not taken all that often, whereas the Aussies are everywhere.  We need a strategic foreign policy review (yep, she said it, too), more specifics and less vague statements, and a tech policy that is more than Huawei/notHuawei.
Last but not least was journalist Don Newman, who pointed out that the de facto ban on Huawei is less than clear to our allies.  He argued that AUKUS should not be Canada's focus but NORAD modernization. 
For the q&a, I asked whether Canada has ever been a rule maker and not a rule taker.  I was thinking in hard security, but Steph pushed peacekeeping (a long time ago), R2P (um, did that ever lead to anything), and land mine ban (which did).  In response to a question, Don argued that Canadian foreign policy got paralyzed by the two Michaels.  But I wonder if this government would have done anything on foreign policy anyhow--another consensus--this govt does not care about foreign policy.

I learned a lot, and I didn't have to do anything as Safia did all of the heavy lifting with some help from the CDSN staff.  We have another Young MINDS-sponsored event next week, organized by our other 2021-2022 Undergraduate Excellence Scholar--Alexander Rizkallah.  It will be a wildly ambitious hackathon with day one at NDHQ (Carling campus) and day two at Carleton.  

I hope y'all can join us on hackathon pitch day!