Time for that semi-regular Semi-Spew post: how to bet in the Age of Trump! I asked the sportsbetting folks about the latest odds now that Spicey is gone. So, check out the odds and my take on how to bet below:
Which of these Donald Trump appointees will be the next to leave their current job (fired or resigned)?
Reince Priebus: +450
Steve Bannon: +450
H.R. McMaster: +950
Jared Kushner: +1250
Kellyanne Conway: +1250
Rex Tillerson: +1750
John F. Kelly: +2500
Steven Mnuchin: +2500
Nikki Haley: +5500
James Mattis: +3500
Rick Perry: +3500
Wilbur Ross: +3500
Scott Pruitt: +3500
Alexander Acosta: +4500
Betsy DeVoss: +4500
Ben Carson: +4500
Sonny Perdue: +4500
Elaine Chao: +4500
Tom Price: +4500
Ryan Zinke: +5500
Mike Pence: +7500
Seems pretty clear that, yes, Sessions is the favorite to go next. Priebus is facing some serious pressure from the Mooch. I think Bannon's odds are wishful thinking--he has secured himself again after being at risk for a while. McMaster is probably secure for a while--he can be irrelevant forever... I'd be tempted to bet on Tillerson--he got his tax break and then found out that running State into the ground gets him a lot of unwanted attention. I don't think there are any long shots beyond Tillerson that make any sense.
So, of all these choices, I would place my bets on Jeff (so frustrated that Trump makes me want him to stay so that Mueller doesn't get fired) and Rex. So, I'd place $100 on Sessions to win $250 and $100 on Tillerson to win $1750.
There are also bets about impeachment and indictments:
Year that Donald Trump will be impeached
2021 or later/no impeachment: -450
Strange odds, as I would think the most likely time for it (and thus the lower chance to win would be 2019 with a potentially Democratic Congress).
I'd bet, however, $450 to win $100 that Trump isn't impeached at all.
Will Michael Flynn be indicted or charged with a crime by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2017?
Will Jared Kushner be indicted or charged with a crime by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2017?
Will Carter Page be indicted or charged with a crime by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2017?
Will Donald Trump Jr. be indicted or charged with a crime by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2017?
Will Paul Manafort be indicted or charged with a crime by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2017?
Hmmmm, tempted to bet no on all since Trump might try to fire Mueller before any indictments are filed. If I had to bet, I would bet on Manafort being indicted. Good odds (4.5 to 1), less likely to roll (he'd be risking his life with Putin). Flynn? Likely to roll over. Kushner? Probably but not in 2017. Page? Oh baby! The risk here is that he rolls over and doesn't get indicted, but he might just tell all the first chance he gets even without a deal--he is that dumb. Don Jr.? Ok, why not? Something to root for!
Anyhow, just some ideas on a wet Ottawa day.