We already knew that the University of Oregon is, um, mighty messed up, as it used students' records from campus counseling to defend itself from a lawsuit (one where the victim of sexual assault accused the university of protecting the perpetrators from untimely discipline). Now, it seems Oregon may be firing the people who worked at the counseling center who resisted this effort.
This is doubling down on the betrayal of trust. Students should not trust any campus employee at Oregon, as they will be subjected with dismissal if the staffer takes the students interests and rights seriously. I feel sorry for all those working at this institution, as it is now a place where the students have no assurances that their rights and well being matter. Indeed, when it comes to it, the students who are victims are victimized again to protect the University and its athletes.
Apparently, the school must believe that old line that there is no such thing as bad PR. Um, there is, and this is textbook. The effort to coverup and then punish is going to do far more damage to the university's reputation than a couple of rapists.
If only the University of Oregon were a public school where legislators and state officials might be able to do something about it.
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Civil-Military Relations, Academia, Politics in General, Selected Silliness
Friday, March 27, 2015
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
Canada Expands Its War: Qomments
The Nerdist broadcast has a thing called Qomments--questions and comments. Which pretty much captures what this post on the news du jour.
- Does it matter that Canada has no legal cover for this? This is the first time I know of (and I am no Canadian military historian) where Canada is engaged in combat (by planes, if not by SOF-ish adventures) without either an international resolution (UN or NATO or both) or an invitation by the country to be protected.
- Is the kind of bombing in Syria different than that which is going to happen now in Iraq? That is, not that there are no targets left in Iraq but if the fighting shifts into the cities, such as Mosul, there may be different risks--more risks of hitting civilians. Is the Syrian air campaign seen as cleaner? I have no idea.
- The plan in Iraq is clear but hard--try to get the existing government to make deals with the Sunnis that bind them better than the last time. Not easy at all but an exit path. Bombing helps keep ISIS down, but lasting stability requires a deal of some kind. Syria? I have no idea. Bomb ISIS helps Assad, but not bombing ISIS in Syria helps ISIS in Iraq. Damn.
- I hate talk of exit strategies because it means you are far more focused on the getting out rather than the doing. But there is some need for some idea of what the strategy is here besides whacking moles. Attrition is probably not going to work too well.
- I do prefer renewing this thing a year at a time rather than every six months. Not just because the media time suck is then less frequent, but because none of the actors involved benefit from the spin cycle being that frequent.
- What will happen to public opinion now that the mission is expanded to Syria? The recent poll does not ask this. Given that ISIS is mighty unpopular here, especially after the events of October in Quebec and Ottawa, the best guess is that the public is not going to mind so much as long as it does not mean much more risk. Which gets back to whether the air strikes in Syria are qualitatively different than those in Iraq?
- I am not thrilled that there is not much of a learning curve when it comes to the language about ground forces: "Canada will not be participating in ground combat operations." I prefer the American language about enduring offensive operations. CANSOF are going to be doing combat, as they have already done so. They have fought when fired upon and put themselves into places where such stuff happens. They have participated in the air campaign by lasing ISIS targets, which means they are abetting combat from the ground. So, "ground combat ops" is a lousy description of what they are not doing. What they are not doing is engaging in an enduring offensive effort. If they want to foreswear raids (something that the American language clearly permits), then they can say that. Oy.
Monday, March 23, 2015
More Hours in the Classroom
It is time for that ritual post--responding to those who think that being a professor means we work 10 hours a week. One of my earliest posts compared a prof to an iceberg in that much of what we do is unseen (and that we destroy ships). An op-ed in a Canadian newspaper (which was so awful it does not deserve linking) made the claim that our teaching is only ten hours a week and that we should not do the research stuff that much. More significantly, the governor of Wisconsin, a state known for its excellent institutions of higher education, has been saying that profs need to teach more classes and do more work.
Before I start: a caveat--I teach a 2/1 load--two courses one semester and one course the other as I buy out one class a year with the funds that come with my endowed chair. So, I am a particularly poor situation to make any arguments since I am in the classrooms less than my colleagues. But I am self-aware, not humble, so I will argue anyway about these claims.
Let's consider this a challenge: if folks want us to teach more, what do they want us to do less? Because, yes,Virginia, Scott Walker, most profs work 40 or more hours a week as it is. So, if you want us to do more time in the classroom, we are going to do less of something else. Just tell us what you want us to do less of:
Could I teach more and still be productive? Sure, but I would have to do less stuff--I would have to say no to more students who need me to be a second or third reader on their theses and dissertations. I would have to say no to public engagement. The fundamental fallacy of the past decade or two of management has been that we can do more with less. The reality, as Dave Perry put it for his analysis of the Canadian Forces budget, is that we would have to do less with less. Indeed, with more teaching slots going to adjuncts, the research/supervision/service load is increasingly concentrated on the smaller number of tenure track folks.
To argue that professors are wasting heaps of time is to engage in the same kind of fantasy that we can cut government budgets by reducing the number of civil servants without losing any service. Most of the people in government jobs are doing something real. Most, although certainly not all, professors are working pretty hard. The idea of waste allows one to dodge the real tradeoff--if you want more of x, expect less of y. But that tradeoff is quite real. So, just be honest, and tell us what we should do less of in exchange for more classroom hours.
Before I start: a caveat--I teach a 2/1 load--two courses one semester and one course the other as I buy out one class a year with the funds that come with my endowed chair. So, I am a particularly poor situation to make any arguments since I am in the classrooms less than my colleagues. But I am self-aware, not humble, so I will argue anyway about these claims.
Let's consider this a challenge: if folks want us to teach more, what do they want us to do less? Because, yes,
- Teaching: Yep, we could spend more time in the classroom and less time teaching. How does that make sense?
- One of the biggest time commitments is to the supervision of undergraduates and grad students. At liberal arts colleges, they spend far more time supervising each individual undergrad. At most universities, one can spend a fair amount of time supervising various kinds of undergrad theses. In my previous job, I did some of that, and it takes time. I did supervise a bunch of PhD students and still do some of that, and I now supervise MA students in greater volume.
- Maybe we should have fewer graduate students, which would reduce how much time we spend on supervision. But that is a decision that should be made directly and not through the back door of higher teaching loads.
- One could spend less time preparing lectures and seminar discussions. Yes, this actually does take time. The more classes you teach, the more prep work that is required. Sure, over the course of time, each class is mostly prepped. But in most disciplines, there is new stuff to learn to teach, so we need to read books, journals, newspapers, and other media through we learn stuff. Yes, we keep learning.... if we have the time.
- One could reduce the time spent on teaching by having more multiple choice exams. There is room in the academic enterprise for these things, but they do not really test thinking as much as they test memorization (at least as far as I have been able to design such tests). To really educate the next generation to think better, we need to see it on paper--via papers and essay exams. Which means grading, which takes time. More classes mean less time for grading.
- Research: This is usually the target of the teach more crowd. Why? Because research is useless?
- No. It is not. I have argued elsewhere that teaching and research inform each other.
- One example of the relevance of social science research that is often targeted. There has been much scholarship on what kinds of political institutions make ethnic conflict more or less problematic. While there is much about the relative success story of South Africa, one key ingredient is that they brought in the experts--the academics--who studied such stuff and asked how they should design their constitution. Afghanistan? No, not at all.
- If you take a look at the map around UCSD (the place I know best, but true elsewhere too), you will see that it is damn near surrounded by bio-tech and information technology companies. Tis no accident.
- I am currently reading a book on a key moment in Canadian history: the Normandy campaign. Why is this relevant? Because it shapes how Canada sees its military and others see it, which might just shape the role it plays in future multilateral military operations.
- The reality is that universities are the epitome of economic multipliers--money goes in, and it spurs the local economy... more so than prisons or military bases. And much of that is related to the spinoffs from research.
- It is certainly true that not all basic research turns into tangible economic outcomes, and that private actors can do research, too. But much of what private actors do is subsidized by government one way or another. Plus the accidental discoveries of random academics often have huge value-added. And are often, of course, inconvenient for the powerful. Which is why the freedom to engage in whatever research one wants (within limits--no longer experimenting on students that much anymore) is so very key. That government labs and private labs are unlikely to produce that inconvenient stuff that is often so important in the long run.
- Via grant-writing, we are expected to raise money for our research--much of that money does not end up in our pockets. Actually, none of it does. Much of it funds graduate programs, some of it funds travel/equipment, and much of it funds universities via "indirect costs" that never go through the professor's account.
- Service: Much of that research stuff and that teaching stuff requires service to function.
- We need people to spend time reviewing manuscripts (articles, books, chapters) so that we can be sure they are worthy of dissemination via reviewed outlets. I often say that I don't work that much on weekends, but then I realize I do most of my article reviewing on weekends. I am probably not the only one.
- We spend much time evaluating ourselves so that we only hire, promote and tenure those who are deserving. This takes a tremendous amount of time--reading files, writing recommendations, listening to talks, etc.
- Speaking of recommendations, not sure if it goes here or under teaching, but if you ask folks to teach more, they might have less time to write letters of recommendation for their students. Which might hurt their employability. Oops.
- We are expected do outreach more and more--give talks to folks in the community, actually do community service, speak to the media not just to provide expertise but raise the visibility of our university, engage in social media to promote ourselves and thus our university, etc. If we are in the classroom for more hours, we would have to cut back on this.
- Self-govern. Sure, we could have more administrators hired to do much of our self-government for us, but that would require more money. So, if we teach more, are you going to hire more administrators to do the self-governance that we would not have time for? Maybe.
Could I teach more and still be productive? Sure, but I would have to do less stuff--I would have to say no to more students who need me to be a second or third reader on their theses and dissertations. I would have to say no to public engagement. The fundamental fallacy of the past decade or two of management has been that we can do more with less. The reality, as Dave Perry put it for his analysis of the Canadian Forces budget, is that we would have to do less with less. Indeed, with more teaching slots going to adjuncts, the research/supervision/service load is increasingly concentrated on the smaller number of tenure track folks.
To argue that professors are wasting heaps of time is to engage in the same kind of fantasy that we can cut government budgets by reducing the number of civil servants without losing any service. Most of the people in government jobs are doing something real. Most, although certainly not all, professors are working pretty hard. The idea of waste allows one to dodge the real tradeoff--if you want more of x, expect less of y. But that tradeoff is quite real. So, just be honest, and tell us what we should do less of in exchange for more classroom hours.
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Gallows Humor
Literally--humor about executions that point at the hypocrisy of the US and its politicians, again H/T to Brian MacFadden and the NYT:
If you cannot laugh about it, you can only cry about it... The satire here is excellent for emphasizing the damn near universal hypocrisy on this.
If you cannot laugh about it, you can only cry about it... The satire here is excellent for emphasizing the damn near universal hypocrisy on this.
Twitter Fighting
Many of the players in this year's tourney, including many on #TeamSpew, are new to the game. The basic instructions are at http://www.twitterfightclub.com/. But what does it mean to twitter fight in TFC15? Each round of the tourney, each player will face another player and they must out-tweet them to both the public at large and a panel of judges.
Yes, it is in part a popularity contest, which is why I tended to draft twitter-ers who have more followers. But the people with huge followings often do not engage in the game seriously, so they often don't win the votes of the judges.
So, again, what does out-tweet mean?
Yes, it is in part a popularity contest, which is why I tended to draft twitter-ers who have more followers. But the people with huge followings often do not engage in the game seriously, so they often don't win the votes of the judges.
So, again, what does out-tweet mean?
- Well, it can be volume. That was certainly one of the strategies I used, as I could be online tweeting while doing my regular academic stuff more than some of the folks I played against who had jobs that took them away from twitter/computer and certainly those who were flying (pre-wifi in the skies those days of yesterday [two years ago]).
- It can be insight/utility. That is, one tweets stuff in one's area of expertise to produce high quality tweets--helping people to learn about that area.
- It should involve engagement--that the twitter fighter engages the adversary, the judges and those following the players. Twitter is far more interactive than blogs (indeed, some judges discount links to blogs), and so to be a good twitter fighter, one should be engaging those who follow you. Some judges will test the twitter fighters by asking questions or offering challenges. One would be wise to follow the judges of your round for at least the day of that round. [Yes, some ego stroking might be involved]
- Funny but not brutal snark is a key ingredient. The idea of this tourney is to have banter among those doing national security stuff. So, funny tweets or strategies (someone came up with a fake twitter account of @exumAM's beard). In my last couple of rounds in my finalist campaign, I came up with some meme-ish graphics that were fun (at least to me):
I have already seen a number of players make amusing boasts and offering challenges. The key is to keep things in the spirit of the game. I have made more than a few friends and some valuable connections with the people who defeated me, those who I beat, and those who were in other parts of the brackets. Twitter fight club may seem like a time suck, but it has been very, very good to me.
Engage!
Saturday, March 21, 2015
Star Wars: Space Only
Someone has edited the end of Return of the Jedi to be just the space stuff
And it is just fantastic. It ramps up the tension far more than the three sided battle--on Endor; between Luke, Daddy, and the Emperor; and the space stuff. But, well, the rest of the stuff was kind of necessary.
Still, the interplay among the various elements in space is far more compelling than the space battle that opens Revenge of the Sith. There, it is just Anakin and Obi-wan. Here, so much more with stakes one cares about.
Once again, the internet is a magical place and this is why I am on twitter.
H/T to @cblatts
And it is just fantastic. It ramps up the tension far more than the three sided battle--on Endor; between Luke, Daddy, and the Emperor; and the space stuff. But, well, the rest of the stuff was kind of necessary.
Still, the interplay among the various elements in space is far more compelling than the space battle that opens Revenge of the Sith. There, it is just Anakin and Obi-wan. Here, so much more with stakes one cares about.
Once again, the internet is a magical place and this is why I am on twitter.
H/T to @cblatts
Friday, March 20, 2015
Twitter Fight Club 2015: The Draft!
As one of the recent finalists of Twitter Fight Club (I was second in 2013), I have the honor having one of the sections of the bracket named after me AND I get to play a role in the seeding.
Today, at 5pm, the past four finalists will take turns "drafting" the 64 people in the game. The first four people picked will be #1 seeds, the second four people picked will be #2 seeds, and so on. This takes a bit of work out of the hands of organizer of TFC: Caitlin Fitzgerald. Given how much work she does for this month-ish of silliness, snark, and networking, it is very least we could do.
How will I choose? I have financed a team of data analysts from a variety of places (you know, 538, Silicon Valley, Michigan's ICPSR, Wall Street, etc) to develop an algorithm that takes into account the competitor's klout, tweet volume, number of followers and experience in previous twitter fight clubs. I then take the subsequent ranking and move people up and down based on the quality and quantity of snark I have witnessed, their actual day jobs (working for media outlets > first year grad students), and a variety of idiosyncratic factors. For instance, there is one player who blocks me and whom I block. I will not be drafting that player.
I will be picking third in a snake-style draft--1 2 3 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4, etc. At the end of the tourney, the drafter who picks best (there are points for each picked player that survives each round) will be declared the winner. I have come close to winning not just the tourney but the bracket part of the competition. But I don't really expect to win here. If I do, well, woot for me!
And, yes, I am releasing my strategy ahead of the draft because the other drafters are not privvy to the particular algorithm or how I have modified even that secret formula based on fairly random factors.
Oh, and how do I know that my algorithm has face validity? Because it results in @Hayesbrown being ranked first. And he is the favorite heading in. I start with chalk but will not stick to it.
Do follow the fun today at 5pm EDT at #TFC15.
Today, at 5pm, the past four finalists will take turns "drafting" the 64 people in the game. The first four people picked will be #1 seeds, the second four people picked will be #2 seeds, and so on. This takes a bit of work out of the hands of organizer of TFC: Caitlin Fitzgerald. Given how much work she does for this month-ish of silliness, snark, and networking, it is very least we could do.
How will I choose? I have financed a team of data analysts from a variety of places (you know, 538, Silicon Valley, Michigan's ICPSR, Wall Street, etc) to develop an algorithm that takes into account the competitor's klout, tweet volume, number of followers and experience in previous twitter fight clubs. I then take the subsequent ranking and move people up and down based on the quality and quantity of snark I have witnessed, their actual day jobs (working for media outlets > first year grad students), and a variety of idiosyncratic factors. For instance, there is one player who blocks me and whom I block. I will not be drafting that player.
I will be picking third in a snake-style draft--1 2 3 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4, etc. At the end of the tourney, the drafter who picks best (there are points for each picked player that survives each round) will be declared the winner. I have come close to winning not just the tourney but the bracket part of the competition. But I don't really expect to win here. If I do, well, woot for me!
And, yes, I am releasing my strategy ahead of the draft because the other drafters are not privvy to the particular algorithm or how I have modified even that secret formula based on fairly random factors.
Oh, and how do I know that my algorithm has face validity? Because it results in @Hayesbrown being ranked first. And he is the favorite heading in. I start with chalk but will not stick to it.
Do follow the fun today at 5pm EDT at #TFC15.
When Iraq is Easier
I wrote last week that the "Russian front" was far easier than the Mideast for the US and its allies because it did not involve state/nation-building/counter-insurgency. All the US and NATO has to do is credibly commit to those inside the alliance and hold the line against Russia. Not easy but easier than building stable political systems in the Mideast.
Well, next week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is going to announce Canada's next steps in the region and the "Syria" word has been mentioned. So, I thought I would take a moment to ponder the differences between Iraq and Syria. And the first thought is .... Iraq is easier. How so?
When people talk of endgames, strategies, and exits, there actually is a real set of answers for Iraq and damn near none for Syria. There is a recognized, semi-viable government in Iraq. Unfortunately, it has been led by Shiites who have been using their positions to make up for the years of repression and oppression by Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated government. Oh, and their religious identity makes Iran their most appealing ally. Good times. Still, this basic reality that there is something there in Baghdad means that there are ways out for the US and its allies. Not easy at all but the potential way out of the quagmire: strengthening the military and police of Iraq so that they can provide security AND the hard part--somehow the government becomes more interested in not harming the Sunnis who are not part of ISIS or any other insurgency.
Sure, that is not easy but compare it to Syria. What is the way out of Syria? Um..... Yeah. There is no viable opposition that is not ISIS, AND the government is just impossibly illegitimate. What does victory look like in Syria? Damned if I know. I have no clue about how to get from here to there. The key point here is that Syria is just very, very complex. Hitting ISIS helps Assad, which is something most folks do not want to do. Hitting Assad helps ISIS. Oy. Helping the other opponents of Assad has helped ISIS since these folks tend to lose and then give up their stuff to ISIS.
The other difference for Canada's big decision next week is that Iraq is legal--government welcomed all of us in, and intervening in Syria is not so much. No UN resolution, no NATO consensus, no government asking for help. Not sure this matters that much to Harper, but it matters to the Canadian public to a degree. Would Syria be a bridge too far? Probably not as long as the casualties stayed where they are now (one killed, three wounded).
I cannot guess what Harper will announce in a few days, although I have little doubt that Canadian Forces, in a non-convetional form, will be sticking around for a while longer in the Mideast--bombing in Iraq, SOF training plus in Iraq at the very least. Doing more? Maybe, but I would still bet against conventional forces doing counterinsurgency stuff. No Kandahar II for this government.
Well, next week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is going to announce Canada's next steps in the region and the "Syria" word has been mentioned. So, I thought I would take a moment to ponder the differences between Iraq and Syria. And the first thought is .... Iraq is easier. How so?
When people talk of endgames, strategies, and exits, there actually is a real set of answers for Iraq and damn near none for Syria. There is a recognized, semi-viable government in Iraq. Unfortunately, it has been led by Shiites who have been using their positions to make up for the years of repression and oppression by Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated government. Oh, and their religious identity makes Iran their most appealing ally. Good times. Still, this basic reality that there is something there in Baghdad means that there are ways out for the US and its allies. Not easy at all but the potential way out of the quagmire: strengthening the military and police of Iraq so that they can provide security AND the hard part--somehow the government becomes more interested in not harming the Sunnis who are not part of ISIS or any other insurgency.
Sure, that is not easy but compare it to Syria. What is the way out of Syria? Um..... Yeah. There is no viable opposition that is not ISIS, AND the government is just impossibly illegitimate. What does victory look like in Syria? Damned if I know. I have no clue about how to get from here to there. The key point here is that Syria is just very, very complex. Hitting ISIS helps Assad, which is something most folks do not want to do. Hitting Assad helps ISIS. Oy. Helping the other opponents of Assad has helped ISIS since these folks tend to lose and then give up their stuff to ISIS.
The other difference for Canada's big decision next week is that Iraq is legal--government welcomed all of us in, and intervening in Syria is not so much. No UN resolution, no NATO consensus, no government asking for help. Not sure this matters that much to Harper, but it matters to the Canadian public to a degree. Would Syria be a bridge too far? Probably not as long as the casualties stayed where they are now (one killed, three wounded).
I cannot guess what Harper will announce in a few days, although I have little doubt that Canadian Forces, in a non-convetional form, will be sticking around for a while longer in the Mideast--bombing in Iraq, SOF training plus in Iraq at the very least. Doing more? Maybe, but I would still bet against conventional forces doing counterinsurgency stuff. No Kandahar II for this government.
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Progress Means Procrastination
That wonderful academic moment where you figure out the paper/chapter
that is due soon is, alas, quickly followed by the urgency to
procrastinate, such as with this fun game I learned via @midnight: http://www.googlefeud.com/
and what have I learned? That I suck at this game.
Hope you procrastinate well!
and what have I learned? That I suck at this game.
Hope you procrastinate well!
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
It is All About the Small Pleasures
It is important to smell the roses and all that. And it is important to enjoy some good snark:
Either you laugh or you cry, and I choose to laugh.
@Worse_Reviewer hey, when we talk about de tenure, we mean de book or 6-8 of dese here articlesOf course, the U of Tennessee undermining tenure is pretty ugly, but gallows humor has a purpose--to take a bit of the pain out these kinds of things.
— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman) March 19, 2015
Either you laugh or you cry, and I choose to laugh.
Thinking/talking about Social Media and Research
I was asked to participate at a Carleton workshop on social media and research. I live-tweeted it, so that means I can storify it. I missed the opportunity to vine it, snapchat it, pinterest it, and otherwise social media it.
It was useful to get me thinking about how others think about this stuff and things I tend not to think about: ethics for one....
I am thinking of coming up with a twitter 101/FAQ. Let me know if you have any suggested entries.
I could either do that or scout my draft picks for twitter fight club 2015.
It was useful to get me thinking about how others think about this stuff and things I tend not to think about: ethics for one....
I am thinking of coming up with a twitter 101/FAQ. Let me know if you have any suggested entries.
I could either do that or scout my draft picks for twitter fight club 2015.
The Dark Timeline Gets Darker: Bibi Returns
I am not a Mideast or Israel expert (I have religiously avoided studying Israel/Palestine in my career--too much literature to read, too much emotion to wade through), but my understanding of ethnic politics leads to a few thoughts that converge with Marc Lynch's tweet yesterday:
Give Bibi props as it worked. And it demonstrates something that we political scientists have known far too well and for too long--that which is good for the short term, that which is good for the politician is often bad, very bad for the country. Indeed, the Bill and Steve book (which needs to have the new intro be an etch-a-sketch so that we can add new irredentism news these days) is entitled For Kin or Country for a reason.
No good can come of the stances that Netanyahu took in the last days of the election. His move to deny a two-state solution was an essentially irredentist one--that Israel will be larger, containing the Jews outside the traditional boundaries and bring in the historical (Biblical, I guess) territories. The problem, of course, is that this will mean that Israel will continue to contain an ever increasing population that is not Jewish.
People have long pondered whether Israel will remain democratic or Jewish, but that it could not be both. If a large hunk of the population cannot vote, then Israel will not be truly democratic. If they can, then they will vote and erode the Jewish character of the state. The two state solution was a way to avoid this fork in the road. Instead, Netanyahu pushed on the accelerator and the choice seems have been made last night.
I had a bit of hope, as I thought that the increased Arab vote (those residing in the 1947 boundaries can vote) could be a critical coalition partner that would lure at least one major party to engage in a multi-ethnic appeal. But Netanyahu has proved, I think, that he can win by going the other way. It is always hard for the multi-ethnic party to compete with the ethnic outbidder, but not impossible.
It seems like enough of Israel has chosen its destiny.... a very difficult and dangerous future where its most powerful ally is alienated, where the task of governing hostile territories becomes not just part of Israel's past but an integral part of its future, and where the values of many are sacrificed due to fear. Israelis have often felt friendless before, but now they are governed yet again by someone who is making friendlessness both a strategy and a goal it seems.
Tis a dark timeline indeed.
I just assumed all along Netanyahu would win since it's worst possible outcome and when in Middle East these days is that not best bet?What can we conclude from what happened in this campaign and with this outcome? Simply that Israel is screwed. Netanyahu successfully "gambled for resurrection" by running as if Obama was his opponent, by outbidding his opponents in demonizing the Arab voters, and by taking the two-state solution off of the table.
— Marc Lynch (@abuaardvark) March 17, 2015
Give Bibi props as it worked. And it demonstrates something that we political scientists have known far too well and for too long--that which is good for the short term, that which is good for the politician is often bad, very bad for the country. Indeed, the Bill and Steve book (which needs to have the new intro be an etch-a-sketch so that we can add new irredentism news these days) is entitled For Kin or Country for a reason.
No good can come of the stances that Netanyahu took in the last days of the election. His move to deny a two-state solution was an essentially irredentist one--that Israel will be larger, containing the Jews outside the traditional boundaries and bring in the historical (Biblical, I guess) territories. The problem, of course, is that this will mean that Israel will continue to contain an ever increasing population that is not Jewish.
People have long pondered whether Israel will remain democratic or Jewish, but that it could not be both. If a large hunk of the population cannot vote, then Israel will not be truly democratic. If they can, then they will vote and erode the Jewish character of the state. The two state solution was a way to avoid this fork in the road. Instead, Netanyahu pushed on the accelerator and the choice seems have been made last night.
I had a bit of hope, as I thought that the increased Arab vote (those residing in the 1947 boundaries can vote) could be a critical coalition partner that would lure at least one major party to engage in a multi-ethnic appeal. But Netanyahu has proved, I think, that he can win by going the other way. It is always hard for the multi-ethnic party to compete with the ethnic outbidder, but not impossible.
It seems like enough of Israel has chosen its destiny.... a very difficult and dangerous future where its most powerful ally is alienated, where the task of governing hostile territories becomes not just part of Israel's past but an integral part of its future, and where the values of many are sacrificed due to fear. Israelis have often felt friendless before, but now they are governed yet again by someone who is making friendlessness both a strategy and a goal it seems.
Tis a dark timeline indeed.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Israel's Best Hope
Ironic maybe that Israel's best hope is seen as a danger:
If Israeli politicians actually had to appear to Arabs, it might offset the power of other minorities, the ultra orthodox, as well as strengthen the hands of the less irredentistly inclinded. The statements by Netanyahu in his desperate bid to stay in power reveal that some trends are pushing against him and his party--that if the Arab vote turns out, more moderate forces may be able to govern with the support of parties presenting the Arab community.
Of course, this speaks to a larger challenge down the road--but much closer than it used to be--when Israel has to choose to be democratic or be Jewish. The one-state non-solution that Netanyahu favors these days would drive the country directly at this fork in the road. Demonizing one part of the electorate to stay in power is a perfectly democratic thing to do in the sense that it happens in most democracies (see voterfraudfraud in the US for a similar example), but it is pretty hostile to the idea and practice of democracy.
If there were not already sufficient reasons to cheer for Netanyahu's defeat, this last gasp, aimed at a minority group, should be enough.
Disgusting MT @ChemiShalev: Netanyahu: "The right wing's rule is in danger. Arab voters are moving towards the polling booths in droves."In the ethnic politics literature, it is generally seen as a positive thing when parties representing the majority have to appeal to minority communities for votes (see Donald Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict). The need to appeal to non-majority groups serves to mute the incentives to engage in ethnic outbidding--to promise ever greater steps to protect one's ethnic group at the expense of others.
— Michael Cohen (@speechboy71) March 17, 2015
If Israeli politicians actually had to appear to Arabs, it might offset the power of other minorities, the ultra orthodox, as well as strengthen the hands of the less irredentistly inclinded. The statements by Netanyahu in his desperate bid to stay in power reveal that some trends are pushing against him and his party--that if the Arab vote turns out, more moderate forces may be able to govern with the support of parties presenting the Arab community.
Of course, this speaks to a larger challenge down the road--but much closer than it used to be--when Israel has to choose to be democratic or be Jewish. The one-state non-solution that Netanyahu favors these days would drive the country directly at this fork in the road. Demonizing one part of the electorate to stay in power is a perfectly democratic thing to do in the sense that it happens in most democracies (see voterfraudfraud in the US for a similar example), but it is pretty hostile to the idea and practice of democracy.
If there were not already sufficient reasons to cheer for Netanyahu's defeat, this last gasp, aimed at a minority group, should be enough.
Globalization is Over-rated, Tale 47
There is good news for border-crossers: the US and Canada are working to make it easier to cross the border. It would allow that which happens at eight Canadian airports to take place in other ways--that I get cleared by US customs at the Ottawa airport (or Montreal or Toronto, etc) so that the plane then lands anywhere in the US without having to do the customs thing. The story here suggests that customs people can board trains or buses and pre-clear people before the border so that people don't have to get off, go through customs at the border, and get on.
Great in theory. But given that I have only been able to go the Nexus line once or twice when I have driven back to Canada, because it is almost always closed, I wonder if either country will pour money into having the personnel and/or into building customs facilities elsewhere to make this happen. New customs facilities in bus stations? Really? Hmmm.
Given the budget realities in both Canada and the US, consider me a doubter for now. In the long run, this stuff is likely to work out pretty well. In the short run, I just don't expect to see that much to change. After all, despite the imaginations of the globalization fans, Canada and the US remain two distinct countries that fall way short of the Schengen stuff in Europe. We ain't no EU and it ain't happening anytime soon.
Right now, all I really want is for the Nexus lines in both directions to be open longer (the US is 9-5ish it seems except on weekends, Canada: who knows).
Great in theory. But given that I have only been able to go the Nexus line once or twice when I have driven back to Canada, because it is almost always closed, I wonder if either country will pour money into having the personnel and/or into building customs facilities elsewhere to make this happen. New customs facilities in bus stations? Really? Hmmm.
Given the budget realities in both Canada and the US, consider me a doubter for now. In the long run, this stuff is likely to work out pretty well. In the short run, I just don't expect to see that much to change. After all, despite the imaginations of the globalization fans, Canada and the US remain two distinct countries that fall way short of the Schengen stuff in Europe. We ain't no EU and it ain't happening anytime soon.
Right now, all I really want is for the Nexus lines in both directions to be open longer (the US is 9-5ish it seems except on weekends, Canada: who knows).
Concussions and the NFL: Getting Out Before Getting Hit
Is this the beginning of the end? Chris Borland just quit football after a rookie year that was so surprisingly good that it astonished the guys on the Grantland Football Podcast week after week.
This is probably not the beginning of the end of football, but it is probably the start of athletes choosing to get out and perhaps choosing other sports. We may soon see a migration of folks who could have been football players to other sports where the concussion risk is either less or unknown.
Given his great first year, Borland is definitely choosing health over money as he would get paid big bucks if he kept up last year's performance. I admire him for making a very difficult choice. There is no way this was an easy decision. Indeed, choosing not to get hit is the brave choice.
Update: the fan reaction is surprisingly supportive. Given that his team just lost another key linebacker, Pat Willis, the loss of Borland is going to cause significant problems for the 49ers. Yet the early reactions support the decision. Very interesting indeed.
This is probably not the beginning of the end of football, but it is probably the start of athletes choosing to get out and perhaps choosing other sports. We may soon see a migration of folks who could have been football players to other sports where the concussion risk is either less or unknown.
Given his great first year, Borland is definitely choosing health over money as he would get paid big bucks if he kept up last year's performance. I admire him for making a very difficult choice. There is no way this was an easy decision. Indeed, choosing not to get hit is the brave choice.
Update: the fan reaction is surprisingly supportive. Given that his team just lost another key linebacker, Pat Willis, the loss of Borland is going to cause significant problems for the 49ers. Yet the early reactions support the decision. Very interesting indeed.
Monday, March 16, 2015
Threat Countdown: Right Wing Terrorism
Didn't Colbert have a bit about counting down the threats? Well, the Canadian security folks, CSIS, have counted the threats and found that:
We have seen more of this with a black President and with whites declining relative to other ethnic groups in terms of relative size. We will see more of this. I remember that a US intel estimate with similar kinds of findings got squashed a few years ago, so it is nice to have a reminder of this basic reality. Indeed, Homeland Security had a report last month that didn't get too much play on "right wing sovereign citizens" and the violence they are generating.
All this should serve as a reminder that terrorism is a tactic and not a movement. There are terrorists in all kinds of movements, and that North America has as much to fear from the right as from anywhere else.
“Lone wolf” attacks more often come from white supremacists and extreme right-wing ideologies than from Islamic radicalism, internal CSIS documents say.Of course, the non-lone wolf variety is probably tied to Islamist groups, like Al Qaeda. Still, we panic so much at Islamist terrorism that we forget that the white supremacists/right wing types are as or more violent. Indeed, what about Oklahoma City? What about the spate of attacks in the US tied to white supremacists?
Citing recent academic research, the unclassified documents note extreme right-wing and white supremacist ideology has been the “main ideological source” for 17 per cent of so-called lone wolf attacks worldwide.Islamic extremism accounted for 15 per cent of such attacks, the document noted, while left-wing extremism and “black power” groups followed with 13 per cent. Anti-abortion activism (8 per cent) and nationalism/separatism (7 per cent) rounded out the list, while in 40 per cent of cases there was no clear ideological motivation.
We have seen more of this with a black President and with whites declining relative to other ethnic groups in terms of relative size. We will see more of this. I remember that a US intel estimate with similar kinds of findings got squashed a few years ago, so it is nice to have a reminder of this basic reality. Indeed, Homeland Security had a report last month that didn't get too much play on "right wing sovereign citizens" and the violence they are generating.
All this should serve as a reminder that terrorism is a tactic and not a movement. There are terrorists in all kinds of movements, and that North America has as much to fear from the right as from anywhere else.
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Thirty Years of Ultimate: Oh My!
Thirty years ago, I started playing competitive ultimate. I had played ultimate informally before that--at high school and at summer camp. In the fall of my frosh year, I took an Experimental College (EXCO) class in ultimate frisbee. I could have started playing inter-collegiate ultimate that fall, but I waited until spring. As a result, sometime this month thirty years ago, I began playing "serious" ultimate--first with a college team against other college teams and then on league teams against other league teams with some other kinds of tournaments along the way.
The specific date does not matter, but I am struck by the reality that I have had a longer relationship with ultimate than with my wife. Sure, I have had periods of non-ultimate in my life (didn't play that much in grad school, hard to find in Texas, no time while in Virginia).
I will always be grateful that the folks playing ultimate when I started did not have the same kind of athleticism as the folks I encounter these days. I would never have gotten as much playing time ... well, I did have one advantage in 1985 that might have guaranteed it--I had a car that could fit an entire team easily.
Why has ultimate meant so much to me? Partly because I enjoyed playing a sport I could play well. Partly because the people involved tended to be silly, sweet, fun, funny, and mighty sharp. It is pretty telling that in my travels across North America, my friends usually came from two places: my department and the ultimate folks. Only in Ottawa, my latest stop, has this not applied--I had friends via other sources. But in Texas, our friends were exclusively from these two groups, and this was largely true in Montreal as well.
Anyhow, I thought I would mark the anniversary by going through the digital pictures I have handy and noting some of the teams and moments along the way.
I have a few pictures of my time playing at Oberlin. This one is handy:
It is on the baked fields of Ann Arbor, Michigan, as we played in the sectional tournament (we only made it to regionals one time during my four years and only because another team that was ahead of us could not make it). One of my teammates had a couch in the back of his truck, and it was handy on these hard fields.
This picture is of the Lubbock crew (I forget our name), playing in a distant tourney. All of our tourneys were distant, as there were no other teams in town, and no nearby towns with ultimate. I didn't play in many tournaments as I had a young kid at home at the time, but I did make it to one in Austin, one in Los Alamos (Atomic Blast--I still have the shirt), and one in Colorado (a costume tourney, which meant I had to get a cow costume that I have kept wearing on occasion [see below]).
Still, the teams I played with made quite an impression. I played with BMFHard, which stood for Break Force, Mark Hard. I could only do the former, not so much the latter. But the team did let me indulge in my favorite throwing tactic, which is throwing to the side of the field the defense was seeking to deny me. I didn't always see eye to eye with my captain, but Bobby did teach me a
lot about tactics and strategy. As a result, like Bill Belichick, I seek
to start on offense in the second half.
I played several seasons with Ultimate Angels. A very silly team indeed. A largely Francophone team that tolerated/made fun of/welcomed the unilingual guy. After all, he provided some company to the oldest players on the team (yes, UA was one of the few teams after college where I was not the oldest player).
This pic was from one of my last seasons with UA and shows an old man to old man pass as Mike K was one of the few players with whom I played with and against in Montreal who was older than me. He was also much fitter... damn it. This also shows that I can run and cut long, something that surprised many teams since I tended to hang back and be one of the handlers (qb/point guard)
It was great to go back to Oberlin for various Reunion games including the 30th anniversary of Ultimate at Oberlin.
I have had fun bringing ultimate to the International Studies Association!
For a year or two, I had great fun watching and sometimes playing with my daughter. Seeing Jessica play was quite a hoot. And I am thrilled to report that she now plays with her college team.
I ended up playing on the Junior team with Jean-Levy, the tall guy on the right in this picture--a fantastic player who has played with the the Canadian national team and on teams that have won at the national tourney. The kids, he, and I won the C/D bracket during the end of the season tournament. One of the older teams complained about J-L and I playing, but we were playing with 14-16 year olds against 20-40 year olds.... hee, hee.
Finally a few pictures of highlights along the way. I could never jump that well, so I always took pride in my ability to jump down/sideways: laying out for many disks.
The specific date does not matter, but I am struck by the reality that I have had a longer relationship with ultimate than with my wife. Sure, I have had periods of non-ultimate in my life (didn't play that much in grad school, hard to find in Texas, no time while in Virginia).
Why has ultimate meant so much to me? Partly because I enjoyed playing a sport I could play well. Partly because the people involved tended to be silly, sweet, fun, funny, and mighty sharp. It is pretty telling that in my travels across North America, my friends usually came from two places: my department and the ultimate folks. Only in Ottawa, my latest stop, has this not applied--I had friends via other sources. But in Texas, our friends were exclusively from these two groups, and this was largely true in Montreal as well.
Anyhow, I thought I would mark the anniversary by going through the digital pictures I have handy and noting some of the teams and moments along the way.
I have a few pictures of my time playing at Oberlin. This one is handy:
It is on the baked fields of Ann Arbor, Michigan, as we played in the sectional tournament (we only made it to regionals one time during my four years and only because another team that was ahead of us could not make it). One of my teammates had a couch in the back of his truck, and it was handy on these hard fields.
This picture is of the Lubbock crew (I forget our name), playing in a distant tourney. All of our tourneys were distant, as there were no other teams in town, and no nearby towns with ultimate. I didn't play in many tournaments as I had a young kid at home at the time, but I did make it to one in Austin, one in Los Alamos (Atomic Blast--I still have the shirt), and one in Colorado (a costume tourney, which meant I had to get a cow costume that I have kept wearing on occasion [see below]).
![]() |
| Lubbock ultimate, at Atomic Blast |
In Montreal, I played with a few teams. I played indoors at first, and found out that the Montreal frisbee community was chock full of silly folks, as you can guess from this picture. Lindsay made an immediate impression on me. She was not alone in making me welcome to this vibrant frisbee community. I played ultimate three to four seasons a year for ten years, even as some of the winter leagues (displaced by youth soccer) required a 45 minute or more drive on late winter nights to get to the field. Only at the end, with the league growing so big with so many games being played off the island, with resulting rush hour driving through the choke points, did I start shedding my ultimate commitments.
![]() |
| Lindsay Bales, whose hammers are almost as silly (and effective) as her gear. |
Still, the teams I played with made quite an impression. I played with BMFHard, which stood for Break Force, Mark Hard. I could only do the former, not so much the latter. But the team did let me indulge in my favorite throwing tactic, which is throwing to the side of the field the defense was seeking to deny me. I didn't always see eye to eye with my captain, but Bobby did teach me a
lot about tactics and strategy. As a result, like Bill Belichick, I seek
to start on offense in the second half. ![]() |
Playing with the Grandmaster's team of Montreal, Olde Ville (or something like it) was a pleasure and an honor. And beer from a championship cup is delightful.
In my entire career, one team stands out: General Admission. I played steadily with them in the fall and spring every year as we helped to take over the Concordia frisbee league. Eventually, they developed a winter league, and I joined GA in that as well. The team was so much fun, with so much silly, so much good ultimate, and just terrific people.
![]() |
| One of my first seasons with GA |
![]() |
| Fall games near Halloween always brought out the moo in me. |
I was so very touched when they threw me a surprise game on my way out of town. The pictures here are from before and after that game. I laughed a lot that evening. Not just GA players but also those whom I played against over the years.
| The start to a special night. |
| I really felt the love that night. I miss those guys |
![]() |
| Phil (on the left) overlapped with me for several years at Oberlin and Chris (on the right) is the grandfather/godfather of Oberlin Ultimate. |
I have had fun bringing ultimate to the International Studies Association!
| ISA San Diego 2012 |
Finally a few pictures of highlights along the way. I could never jump that well, so I always took pride in my ability to jump down/sideways: laying out for many disks.![]() |
| Evidence I can leave the ground ... yet the other player got the disk! |
![]() |
| Mighty proud of my ability to throw any kind of throw accurately, unlike many players, I remember that I have a backhand throw. |
And thanks to my daughter and her keen editing skills, we have this video from 2014 proving that I may still have it.
Patricia Weitsman Memorial Scholarship
I received this from Patricia Weitsman's sister:
So, this is good news. I learned at the ISA more about how incredibly influential, sweet, touching and tough Pattie was, so I have been thinking alot about her as the anniversary of her death approaches. I am glad to hear, although not surprised, that the fund-raising effort has been successful. The new security journal at ISA, Journal of Global Security Studies, is something she shepherded, so that there will be a couple of very tangible legacies in her areas of scholarship--at Ohio U and at the ISA.
Dear friends and loved ones;
We wanted to share with you the good news that The Patricia A. Weitsman Memorial Scholarship fund has officially become a permanent endowment, having crossed the $25k mark. It was so meaningful to have received this news just ahead of the first anniversary of my dear sister’s passing.
The first award will be decided in December 2015 for a student entering the War and Peace Studies Program in the 2016 academic year.
Thank you so very much for your thoughtful and loving contributions.
If you would still like to make a gift in memory of Patricia, please visit Ohio.edu/Give and note in the online form that the gift is in memory of Dr. Patricia Weitsman and request that funds be designated to The Patricia A. Weitsman Memorial Scholarship, or call 740-593-0732 to make a gift via phone.
With love,
Debbie
So, this is good news. I learned at the ISA more about how incredibly influential, sweet, touching and tough Pattie was, so I have been thinking alot about her as the anniversary of her death approaches. I am glad to hear, although not surprised, that the fund-raising effort has been successful. The new security journal at ISA, Journal of Global Security Studies, is something she shepherded, so that there will be a couple of very tangible legacies in her areas of scholarship--at Ohio U and at the ISA.
Republican Letter-writing Silliness
Nice for Brian McFadden to take a swipe at HRC while he was at it...
My fave is Rand Paul's, I think, although Cruz writing to Canada is especially delightful as well.
| NYT |
My fave is Rand Paul's, I think, although Cruz writing to Canada is especially delightful as well.
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Sham-tastic Anniversary
While today is Î -day, in just two days, we will be "celebrating" the anniversary of that sham-wow event--the Crimea referendum. Pretty much everyone, except for those with ties to Russia, saw the referendum as the sham it clearly was. I wrote a piece that called it the way everyone saw it. In the aftermath, the EU, the European Parliament, the Group of 7, the UN Security Council (vetoed by Russia, abstained by China), the UN General Assembly, NATO and the Venice Commission condemned it. Even Russia's relatively stalwart friend Belarus indicated it was not thrilled.
The best way to evaluate the referendum? By looking at those who supported it.
So, let's just go to the videotape:
On the bright side, thanks to Vladimir Putin's putsch, Bill and I got the chance to write a new introduction for the new paperback version of For Kin or Country.
Perhaps Putin has disappeared because he is preparing a big party to celebrate the referendum.
The best way to evaluate the referendum? By looking at those who supported it.
- Afghanistan, with its own irredentist aspirations, and still led by a Karzai seeking to piss all over the West.
- Argentina, which saw the Crimea through the Malvinas ... although one could see it the reverse as well. Oops.
- India opposed unilateral measures against Russia, which makes no sense since the world was anything but unilateral in its opposition.
- Kazakhstan
- Kyrgyzstan
- Venezuela
- The various semi-states that Russia has helped to create at the expense of its neighbors.
So, let's just go to the videotape:
On the bright side, thanks to Vladimir Putin's putsch, Bill and I got the chance to write a new introduction for the new paperback version of For Kin or Country.
Perhaps Putin has disappeared because he is preparing a big party to celebrate the referendum.
Friday, March 13, 2015
Mach and Booze
The Ontario government is considering allowing the larger supermarkets to sell beer and wine, which would break the monopoly currently held by the Beer Store (run by foreign companies) and the LCBO (government booze stores). So, the first reaction is almost funny in its over the top quality:
the public sector union basically has said that making booze easier to get means that the current administration does not care about women. Hmmm, yes, the union cares about women, not about potential job losses.
Which is why I reached for my Machiavelli:
``It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things. For the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new order, this lukewarmness arising partly from fear of their adversaries, who have the laws in their favour; and partly from the incredulity of mankind, who do not truly believe in anything new until they have had the actual experience of it.''
Sing it!
the public sector union basically has said that making booze easier to get means that the current administration does not care about women. Hmmm, yes, the union cares about women, not about potential job losses.
Which is why I reached for my Machiavelli:
``It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things. For the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new order, this lukewarmness arising partly from fear of their adversaries, who have the laws in their favour; and partly from the incredulity of mankind, who do not truly believe in anything new until they have had the actual experience of it.''
Sing it!
The Glass May Be Half Full
So much misery in the world, at least as the newspapers report (there is less violence and poverty than 10/20/30 years ago but whatever), and much fear of the apocalypse. But then we have this:
I had scoffed at 3D printing, having no clue about its potential. I still don't understand it--what goes in the machine? But if it can do stuff like this, and other things I have seen lately, well, we live in a pretty amazing time. Of course, this is probably all just a diversion by the intelligent computers.... this video provides quite a shot of perspective sauce to start the day.
I had scoffed at 3D printing, having no clue about its potential. I still don't understand it--what goes in the machine? But if it can do stuff like this, and other things I have seen lately, well, we live in a pretty amazing time. Of course, this is probably all just a diversion by the intelligent computers.... this video provides quite a shot of perspective sauce to start the day.
Presidential Humor
I do love that this President can laugh at himself:
And Kimmel, along with Fallon, is on fire.
And Kimmel, along with Fallon, is on fire.
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Online Media Caucus: Next Steps
The Online Media Caucus was ratified at the ISA in New Orleans. The question is: now what?
First, we now have a variety of online media outlets to publicize:
- ISA's homepage for us: http://www.isanet.org/ISA/Caucuses/OMC
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/OnlineMediaISA or @OnlineMediaISA
- Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ISAOMC
- Blog to be announced later.
- Pinterest, Vine, Instragram, and other online media outlets will be developed by volunteers.
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