Counting Superheroes

Dan Drezner suggested a new way to figure one's age:

In the future people will state their age not in calendar years but in how many incarnations of the Batman they have lived through.

“How old is Dan?”

“Older than you think. He’s at least seven Batmans old.” https://t.co/1sbMrXTMkh

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) August 23, 2020

I'd rather count my age in Spidey's as the Spider-man franchise is more fun, less dark, and, dare I say it, better.  Sure, Dark Knight was a great Heath Ledger performance, but the plots of most Batman movies are dumb, the character development is mostly not that interesting, and, of course, there is not Bat-verse.

Looking back, the 1960's Batman movie was delightful.  Michael Keaton was a great Batman, but after he left, that era of Batman was meh at best. 

Spidey?  The first two Sam Raimi movies are still among the best super-hero movies.  Doc Ock was fantastic in the second, and both had great NY'ers in the action, giving resonance, that is entirely lacking in any and all DC movies.  When have you ever cared about the bystanders?  Even the random kid in the third Raimi movie at the end, who confronts the Rhino, is pretty damned special.  Nothing like that in DC except maybe Wonder Woman.  The first Andrew Garfield Spidey was a good movie.  The second?  Not so much.  The Tom Holland Spidey's are fantastic in part thanks to ... Michael Keaton as one of the best bad guys and best bad guy performances in any of the superhero movies.  And then there is the Spidey-verse.  This really makes coding Spider-folk hard (Dan is already at work figuring out which Batmen count) since we have so many in this movie including Milo, two versions of Peter, Spider-Man Noir, Peni Parker, Spider-Gwen, and, yes, Spider-Ham. 

For my count, I am not including animated series because then things get even more complicated even if the first one spawned some great memes.

So, I will just say that I am ten Spidey's old (pigs count!): Tobey, Andrew, Tom, and seven from Spider-Verse.

Quarantine, Week 23: Summer's End

Summer isn't over yet, but I can see its end from here.  Usually, this weekend is full of end of season ultimate tournaments, panic about getting ready for the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, and starting to think about teaching.  Instead, no ultimate (although I have signed up for a fall league), APSA is a couple of weeks later due to activism over improving its family friendliness and it does not really feel real since I am not flying to San Francisco, and I have been working on my teaching all summer long. 

I had fun making memes to instruct students
on a new assignment: memes of the week!

I have taped nearly every video segment with just two left for me to do and a couple for my co-teacher, David Hornsby to tape.  My daughter, Furloughed Filmmaker Spew, has cleaned up about 40% of the segments, so we should have the first half of the semester uploaded next week.  One of the challenges is that I like to pepper my lectures with examples from current events, and these videos will be watched (theoretically) weeks from now.  So, I keep referring the students back to the summer.'s events  The good news is that they will be engaging more current events via the discussion sections--those will be live.  I will attend more of those than usual to check in with the students.  The rest of the course is asynchronous since having live online classes puts a lot of pressure on the students and on their technology.  For smaller classes--my Phd seminar this fall and my MA civ-mil class in the winter, I will do more live stuff.  I expect those who have gone on to grad school to have their own computers, their own spaces, and more reliable access to the internet.  We shall see if that is fair or not.  The irony is that the person with the crappiest internet may be me--I could not upload those video files so I may be in search of a new router and maybe even a new connection (fiber optic rather than the current system).  I got a lot of help from the Teaching & Learning Services folks at Carleton--they are most patient and good spirited. 

One last thing on the teaching front: I can't express adequately how glad I am that Carleton made a decision late in the spring but early compared to most places to go online in the fall.  They have also signaled that the winter will be online.  It has meant far more work doing course prep, but it was the responsible decision.  As we see outbreaks across the US wherever universities opened up, I know that Carleton made the right call.  Perhaps it is easier to do so up here since the province owns the universities and so we don't fear losing tuition dollars quite as much.  But the institutions in the US really did not prioritize the students' and staff's health as much as they should have.  And so now many places are switching to online late, so that the profs will be repeating the crappy move they made last March instead of spending the time to do online as well as it can be done.  So that is very aggravating.  So much wasted time and endangered people.  Just like the rest of the country.


For the course prep, I interviewed a couple of scholars and will interview one more next week.  This will help give the students some different ways to think about the stuff.  It was good to meet some new folks and see some old friends.  I am currently trying to figure out whether to organize any hangouts for the APSA since we will not be meeting in person and all those great conversations and impromptu introductions aren't going to happen.  My guess is that I will organize one for the civ-mil community and perhaps another for folks from UCSD's grad program in poli sci.  Yes, I am still thirsty for interactions with people.  My introverted wife has not had quite the same compulsion to meet with folks, but this extrovert has been feeling mighty isolated. 

There was progress on the political front as well.  The Democrats pulled off a pandemic convention.  Folks had criticisms about who was featured and for how long, but there is no way anyone could have expected it to go off so well, to be fairly watchable, and for Biden to rock his acceptance speech.  That the main theme was ... decency ... was both smart and interesting.  The Dems pushed back on the arson committed against the US Postal Service.  It may not reverse the damage, but the political costs will be borne by the GOP.  And then we learned Melania destroyed the WH rose garden, indeed chopping down the cherry trees.  Can we impeach Melania? 

The CDSN news was very good this week.  First, we held our annual meetings of the Directors and then of the Advisory Board.  It was good to see those folks and discuss our various initiatives and adaptations.  I use those meetings to find out what the sub-units of the network are doing and to get advice.  I was seeking feedback on our efforts to improve the diversity of the network.  I cam e into the meeting with a proposal for an undergraduate scholarship and left the meeting with ideas for developing both a diversity plan and a diversity council.  More on that as we figure it out. 

The CDSN has another initiative coming this fall--a new podcast!  This one will be in French, co-produced with the new RSA-NSA network.  The two co-hosts are Sarah-Myriam Martin-Brûlé and Thomas Juneau.  It was fun to watch the ideas come in on multiple social media platforms for the name for the new podcast. 

No family baking challenge this week, but I was so frustrated by the computer problems that Mrs. Spew encouraged me to take two of the leftover chocolate chip cookie dough pots out of the freezer and heat them up for some stress-eating.  Earlier in the week, I made my first Bailey's milkshake.  They may become as addictive as the ccc dough pots. 

The weather is good today, so I am off to bike around the area.  Be well and keep your distance!

Quarantine, Week 22: Lost in Time

I think I had the hardest time this week remembering which day it was.  It was a big week: Kamala Harris was selected to be the next VP if Trump doesn't interfere too much, the US Postal Service has been attacked nakedly as part of Trump's effort to interfere too much, I made much progress in my online course prep, and my department had its pre-fall meeting.  Ok, the last one was not a big thing, but a long thing thanks to a colleague who likes to ask a lot of questions, block progress on stuff, and, yes, shirk.

Here's one I didn't use in the course.

But I had fun as one of the new "assessments" or assignments for the online class is meme of the week.  The idea is to have the students take a theory and make it into a meme to display that they understand the concept.  Oh, and the students will vote on the best ones with those winning the weekly contest getting extra credit.  So, yeah, I had to make some to illustrate and that was fun. Folks on twitter thought it was a good idea although some were already doing something similar.  My partner in this class, David Hornsby, and I have plans to meet next week to tape the segments of the class where we discuss (argue with each other) the implications of some of the theories.  It should be fun and interesting and engaging.  And, yes, I have put far more work into preparing this class this summer than any summer in the past, um, twenty years.  Online class prep is far more work, and the course management system, alas, makes it take more time.

Speaking of online course prep, I was interviewed by Dan Nexon's research assistant this week for Dan's course prep.  He is seeking to build a bank of interviews as a public good.  I was asked about NATO, civ-mil relations, and the IR of ethnic conflict.  I downloaded much of what I knew, with the interview lasting more than twice as long as expected.  Because, yes, I can talk, and I haven't been doing much of that this summer except to myself, our cat, and Mrs. Spew.  I am trying to do something more modest but similar--arranging interviews with a few scholars to ask them why they chose their particular approach and the obstacles they faced.  This is for the midpoint of my IR theory class as a change of pace and to provide alternative perspectives.

I haven't blogged about the assault on the postal service, but here's my basic take:

• Trump and his folks moved too soon.  Democrats in and out of office have plenty of time to adjust: by negotiating pacts with Republican secretaries of state, like the one in Kentucky,  to have more early voting, more ways to vote; by mobilizing people to be poll workers so that there are more places to vote; by suing; by figuring out work arounds, and so on.  
• This move may cost more GOP votes than Dems.  How so?  Because lots of folks rely on the postal service for more than just voting, including medicines and checks.  Oh, and during a pandemic, the mail matters even more.  While I fully expect the popularity of the USPS to go down because Trump is politicizing it, it starts at 91%.  No government institution in the US is as popular.
• The media is not even-handing, false equivalencing this.  I don't know how Fox is handling it, but the rest of the media has found this to be appalling.  
• And, yes, this is about as impeachable as it gets.  Abuse of power to stay in office, much more obviously so and much more destructively so than the crimes Nixon committed to stay in office.

 The core lesson of all of this for the US: if governance matters, folks should elect those who don't want to burn government down.  From the pseudo-hurricane that hit Iowa to the pandemic to the next hurricane that hits the US to the economic crisis and on and on, I doubt there has been greater need for governance in the US since either WWII or the Great Depression.  This time, we didn't get FDR but Trump.  We can look around and compare--from state to state, from country to country, and even from sport to sport--and see that competence and diligence simply matter.  The NBA, thus far, has managed to organize itself and execute its plan despite their bubble existing in the one of the hotzones.  The biggest crisis thus far has been a player who left the bubble to go to a funeral and happened to go by a stripclub for some chicken wings.... The league handled that well.  The NFL and baseball?  Shitshows.  Why? Because their owners hate their players.  No partnership, just animosity.  Kind of like how Trump feels about Americans.

To end this on a positive note, yes, I will be baking some more (and I still have two Nigella chocolate chip cookie dough pots stashed in the freezer for when I really need them).  The CDSN has its annual meeting with the Directors and with the Advisory Board, so it will be good to see those folks and get their take on how we are doing.  More on that next week.  While I lose track of the days, I am not losing track of what we have done thus far nor what we will be doing in the years ahead.  I am very grateful for all of the folks who have given so much of their time, their creativity, and their insights.

Be well!

Kamala, LFG, FTW!

I am pretty jazzed that Joe Biden picked Kamala Harris to be his running mate.  The younger members of my family are less so.  So, let me explain why I am jazzed and why they should not be disappointed.

First, we are facing a classic ethnic conflict kind of election: homogeneous party seeking to outbid the other party on being the best defender of that one group vs a multiethnic party seeking to hold its coalition together.  Trump is tripling down on white supremacy.  I feared that Biden might worry more about appealing to white working class voters than to the base of the Democratic Party.  Nope, he doubled down, picking someone who is exactly what the white supremacists hate--a strong, multiracial woman, daughter of immigrants, married to a Jewish dude.  I just love that.  And, yes, the racial and misogynist attacks have already begun, including birtherism. Biden isn't going to win by running away from those who got him the nomination.  He needs to turn out the party more than attract those who voted for Trump.

Second, I wanted someone with political experience and campaign experience.  That ruled out Susan Rice (who also has a reputation as being awful to her staff, not unlike Klobuchar).  Harris was not afraid to confront Biden in the debates even if she didn't make it to Iowa.  She did win tough primaries in state races (I had no idea the Dems never nominated someone for P/VP from California).
Third, Kamala Harris is of the modern age.  She might not be as agile on social media as AOC, but, then again, who is?  But she does that stuff well.  She is only slightly older than me, so she is not the same old baby boomer (although technically not yet Gen X, alas).  I desperately wanted a presidential candidate in her 50's, which is one reason I was not an early Warren fan.

Fourth, Harris is smart, and I value that a lot.  She masters stuff and then uses it to rip GOP folks to shreds.  She can make the case on the campaign trail (whatever that is in a pandemic) that the Trump Administration is corrupt, incompetent, and dangerous.  The only other candidate who could do that as well would be Warren.  The traditional division of labor is for the VP nom to be the one throwing the knives, letting the Presidential nominee appear to be nice.

My younger relatives tend to believe, I think, that Harris is not sufficiently left-wing and that they preferred Stacey Abrams.  One of the arguments is that Biden didn't pick her because she is overweight.  I haven't seen it, but I can imagine that one could criticize Biden for picking a Black woman who is of lighter skin.  It could be the case that these things drove Biden's decision, but I am thinking that Biden picked Harris because:
a) she ran (Abrams did not) so she has greater name recognition and has been tested
b) she has won at the state level (Abrams has not)
c) she had a personal connection via Beau Biden and Attorney General club.
d) the Dems have chosen Senators for my entire lifetime with one exception--Geraldine Ferraro (and Mondale probably have picked a Senator had there been any Dem woman in the Senate in 1984--a few female GOP senators but no Dems--FFS!)

I get it that Harris is seen as too pro-cop and too pro-law and order.  She was an Attorney General and did support prosecutions that she says she would not support now.  Her more recent stances, I think, matter more, and she has been pushing for the right stuff over the summer regarding Black Lives Matter.

Harris also happens to have one of the most progressive voting records in the Senate.  One can quibble with how that stuff is measured, but she is not Manchin or McCaskill.  One could argue that she is an opportunist, moving left only when it was politically convenient.  Maybe, but I don't mind politicians seeking to represent their constituency.  As the constituency moves (especially if it is in the correct direction), so should they. 

Folks may be upset because this gives Harris the inside track on the nomination in 2024 if Biden doesn't run again or if he doesn't make it to 2024.  I see this as a good thing--that we need someone who can govern if Biden can't continue.  2024?  We shall see.  I think it will be too early for AOC (I like AOC a lot but would prefer to see her win a state-wide race before seeking the nomination).  Abrams?  I hope she gets an important position in the Biden Administration, which can then be a launching pad.

Anyhow, Biden committed to a women as VP and then committed to a woman of color.  He kept his commitments, and Harris is an excellent choice.  I would have preferred Harris as P or Warren, but we didn't get that.  Politics is always about making choices and dealing with tradeoffs, often between things that are not perfect.  The good news is that the younger Saidemans will be voting for Biden/Harris because they know that Trump/Pence has been and will be catastrophic. 

If You Can't Bake It, Fake It?

I am not new to baking or to cooking, but I have done a whole lot more of both since the beginning of March.  Cooking partly because I am not traveling, partly because my two nights of frisbee where I just grab a sandwich or eat after the game isn't happening, and partly because Mrs. Spew has had bronchitis for months.  Baking because it is good for managing the stress of this situation.  Ok, stress eating is good for managing the stress, stress baking helps the stress eating.  And the stress eating has also kept me motivated for the stress exercising.  Along the way, my siblings have gotten in the habit of challenging the family to make something each week.  One of us finds a good recipe, and the rest of us follow along (well, most of us, as my brother resists the herd).  So, I will * the items below that were product of family peer pressure.

War is Like Football or Is Football Like War?

So much crossover between football and war--blitzing and all that.  Well, Trump thinks that the best football coach of our time would "be a as good as any general out there."  Putting aside the question of whether winning many nail-biters in the big game and going 5 and 3 is better than the US military over the same period (narrator: it is), what kind of advice would Belichick give?

• Norms of civilian control of the military?  Feh!  Belichick doesn't care about the norms.  He is willing to have lineman be eligible receivers while wide receivers report as ineligible.
• He loves special teams, so what is the equivalent of the overlooked aspect of the war game?  Would he love those who pilot transport planes as much as he loves left-footed punters?
• Have more press briefings but provide less information.
• Belichick would seek out mid-priced, older weapon systems that can do more things than faster, slicker, more expensive systems.
• The officers that study under him would go on to, at best, mixed results for other military units.
• His mastery of technicalities might mean heaps of almostwarcrimes.
• Belichick would not care where the generals came from--West Point?  Meh.  It is not so much about prestige as about past performance.
• Belichick's recommended strategy would change from week to week, driving the generals crazy.

Any other suggestions?  And, no, no deflation jokes since I believe in the law, ideal gas law! 

Quarantine, Week 21: Pride and Anger

I think the real story of this week for me is frustrated nostalgia.  FB memories is reminding me of years past where this week was spent at Disney/San Diego, at a beach in Delaware, at a lake in NY, and on a cruise with all of my family--parents, siblings, kids.  This year?  No vacation.  The occasional trips to random small towns stopped as Mrs. Spew has been battling non-covid bronchitis.  She is doing better, but we are not plopping in the car in search of modest sights and sounds.

Of course, lots of people have it much worse, so my complaints are also modest.  Things are mostly ok to good.  I was super pleased and proud with the latest Battle Rhythm podcast as we had our long-suffering (actually, she seems not to suffer much) research assistant, Alvine Nintai, serve as guest host while BR co-founder and co-host, the legendary SvH, actually has a vacation.  Alvine did great and it meant more to her than I would have expected.  She's moving on in September to finish her dissertation and start a job.  So, the next challenge is to find another student to fill the spot.

The biggest shock of the week was going to the mall--I was getting my eyes checked, and, yes, paying a lot of money for new glasses.  The shock was how busy the place was.  Everyone was wearing masks, although more than a few people seemed to think that noses were above it all.  This mall always seemed to be marginal--never that crowded, never that busy.  Except for the awful parking lot.  Now?  I guess people are bored.  Not sure back to school sales are driving things since, well, who's going back to school.

My anger this week has a couple of different focal points.  Trump?  Of course.  The destruction of the postal service, which appropriately enough serves his constituents more than not, is now one of the stories.  To game the election, more arson is required apparently.  I am also angry at Canadian folks because they too prioritized bars over schools.  My friends are pulling their hair out over the fucked up priorities from Ontario to California to NY.  I'd like to be of assistance, but not sure what I can do to help them.  I am also angry that Lebanon is governed so poorly that they allowed a small nuke equivalent of explosive material to sit on a dock for, what, six years?  The country was facing a difficult crisis before, in a moment, it lost its primary port and much of its grain supply.  This, alas, is America's future if Trump can win the election as he has already gutted so much of governance.  Anyhow, lots of anger on this.

So, I will conclude with some more pride.  I am spending the weekend revising the CDSN's annual report.  Technically, we should have produced it in April since our first year ended in March, but we were kind of busy with other things.  The report demonstrates, I think, that we have turned a grant idea into a viable and vibrant network, providing much value for our partners and for Canada.  I have been so lucky to work with such great people at Carleton, around Canada, and beyond.  While COVID has caused us to postpone the Summer Institute and hampered us in other ways, we have reacted pretty well, with new initiatives aimed at helping PhD students, at providing quick advice to government, and assisting profs as they prep for online classes.  I always am cognizant that I am asking people to give of the time to help move this thing forward, and they are not getting paychecks for it (well, except for my staff).  So, I am quite grateful as I ask again for a bit of time and expertise.

One fun part of doing the annual report was getting from Melissa the numbers regarding media appearances of the Directors.  I was surprised by the results as Phil Lagassé had twice as much as the next person.  I asked twitter who they thought would be first among Phil, SvH, and myself, and they were not so surprised:

Collecting data on the network, I had the @CdsnRcds HQ track the number of media hits by the Director (me) and Co-Directors. Who do you think had the most media appearances from April '19 to March 20?

— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman) August 8, 2020

Anyhow, I hope y'all are getting a chance to do something besides hang out at home.  Please vacation safely and at a distance!




 

Where Is the Count When We Need Him?

In the midst of this madness, it is easy to lose track of all of the malice policies enacted by the Trump Administration.  I asked twitter after naming three, and I got a heap of feedback.  The top three that came to mind for me, thinking largely about the big effects, of the worst things with the most malicious intent since COVID hit American shores are: 

1. Slowing down testing, which Trump admitted/bragged about.  One can fold into this the recent story about Jared starting to set up a testing policy and then dumping it when COVID seemed to be a blue state problem.  The failure to test, for me, is number one because of the following number: 156k and counting.  To get a grip on this pandemic, one has to test and test a lot and have quick results and then quarantine the positives and trace with whom they were in contact recently.  That the US has failed to bend the curve much has a lot to do with this.
2. Politicizing masks.  Sure, some blame goes to Fauci and others who were worried about a run on masks denying doctors/nurses the PPE they needed, but the politicization of masks is a bigger problem.  That Trumpists refuse to wear masks, seeing as a sign of weakness, of a sign of being too Liberal, or whatever.  Had Trump mandated mask-wearing, his supporters would have followed suit and the non-followers would have done so because they want to live.  Getting mask wearing compliance is also key to containment.  Yet, we are having "debates" about masks when 150k people are dying here and not in places where they wear masks.
3. Messing with the mail.  Clearly aimed to delegitmate the mail-in vote, which ordinarily is not so partisan but Trump guesses will be this time since he has made COVID seem like a hoax.

Then others responded:

1. The whole Trump treated COVID like a hoax giving lots of air and light and fuel for the conspiracy theorists out there.  This ain't the flu, and it is not going away.
2. Repressing Black Lives Matter protests.  It has backfired pretty spectacularly with American public opinion shifting quite a lot, which is why I didn't include it.  But a lot of people have been hurt, with more than a few journalists being blinded and some concussions and, yes, Trumpists driving through protests, hurting others.  Plus the use of DHS thugs has been awful.  
3. Intercepting PPE that were going to states and Canada.
4. The incredible corruption involved with the "bailout" that went to friends of Trump.
5. The weak support for the rest of the economy including the failure to extend unemployment benefits and prevention of evictions.
6. The effort to open the schools despite no funding, support, or plan.  A new way for Betsy DeVos to destroy public higher ed.

And of course, there is the continued arson that preceded the pandemic including: the continued kids in cages; nasty immigration policies; use of federal resources to line the pockets of Trump his cabinet, and pals; and the xenophobia, misogyny and racism.  It may be that the failed impeachment effort was a mistake--that the possibility of impeachment might have restrained Trump somewhat.  However, it might just be that this emergency has just given Trump more opportunity to do more damage.

Anyhow, just as Trump kept a list of Obama initiatives to undo, the Biden team needs to keep in mind everything Trump did and undo all of it.  It will be too late for 200-300k Americans who will have died due to Trump's bungling of the pandemic, but we must correct the awful mistakes and then make more progress (so, yeah, nuke the filibuster).

Quarantine, Week 20: Disappointment, Frustration, and Glimmers of Hope?

As I predicted, it was the lamest of Steve-fests.  I guess it was perfect that when we ordered food for delivery that it never came, so we had to try again and ate late.  On the upside, my baking worked out nicely.  The cinnamon buns were great, and the intra-Saideman competition meant that my sisters on both coasts made them as well.  The cards from my relatives did make it to Canada surprisingly quickly given how slow mail is in both countries.  And the facebook-ization of birthdays meant I got to converse with friends from high school, summer camp, college, grad school, the various jobs since then, and, yes, the folks who I only know through facebook.  I can't really complain since I am healthy despite being deep in my mid-50s with my sore elbow (I blame wrangling baggage in Germany) nearly healed thanks to heaps of physical therapy.  Mrs. Spew has been battling bronchitis (non-COVID division), but is turning the corner on that.  Furloughed Spew is now Academic Video Editor Spew, doing great work cleaning up my videos for the fall course ... for a fee.  She's a pro, so I am loving what she is doing to the videos.  She also had cupcakes delivered on my birthday, so that was super sweet--on multiple levels.


The frustration came mostly in two academic forms: how much the super reliable end up doing and how little the unreliable do.  This is a challenge in the academic world since incentives ... are largely absent except for internally driven motivation.  I had a talk this week with a pal who was putting together a No Committee to help her say no to stuff.  We then went through all of the stuff she does, and I was astonished.  She is doing an incredible job doing so many things--it is so unfair that she gets asked to do so much.  I am pretty sure this is fairly typical of successful women in academia--as they climb up the ladder, they are still underrepresented and they tend to want to pay it forward, so they do far more mentorship than the dudes and they tend to asked to do far more stuff so as to represent their gender.  This then impedes their progress towards full professor since most of this stuff that they get asked to do is not measured for Full which comes mostly down to books and articles and maybe grants.
I don't have this problem because I am not added to bunches of service stuff to represent--there are plenty of middle-aged white dudes.  However, uneven burden-sharing can hit me, too.  This week, because one of my colleagues refused to do some of the work that we are all supposed to do, I have to do more work.  This guy has probably not been as strategic as other folks I have met (including a certain someone at my old job)--in the old post about academic politics, this guy would get coded more as crazy than tragically lazy.  So, I am grading this weekend more than I should, which makes me cranky.  Not as cranky as when my food wasn't delivered--hangry Steve is unpleasant.
Uneven burden-sharing is inherent in academia, just like it is inherent in NATO.  In both cases, the collective action challenge can be mitigated, but it cannot be eliminated.  And focusing on it all of the time probably does no one much good.  So, I shall move on.

Sports are back!  I tend not to watch much basketball, but I am going to do so now.  Partly out of curiosity to see how the games are different in the bubble, partly to support the league's embracing of Black Lives Matter and how the players will use their platform for social justice, and partly because of boredom.  I am not going to watch baseball because, well, it is not going to be around for long thanks to mismanagement.  Also, it is boring.  The good news out of this contrast is that structure and agency both matter.  The NBA has a good relationship with its players, and it has the best commissioner, so it is not a surprise that this league, along with the WNBA, got it right.  Baseball, which has a lousy relationship with its players and a lousy commissioner, got it wrong.  Hockey, which tends to have bad owner-player relations and a usually crappy commissioner, seems to be doing ok in part because they, like the NBA are just finishing the season, and in part because they lucked out and moved to Canada, which has mostly managed to bend the curve (the numbers in Ottawa the past two weeks were in the wrong direction).

Of course, my biggest frustration remains with governance.  The Canadian crisis du jour (non-pandemic division) is that the government gave a big covid-relief contract (summer employment for teens) to a cult movement charity focused on voluntourism which just so happened to have employed Justin Trudeau's family and the family of the Minister of Finance.  Ooops.  Trudeau testified this week that he knew that there would be a perception of conflict of interest so he paused, asked folks to take a second look, and then .... went ahead.  So close to doing the right thing.  Another shot in the foot, an unforced error.
On the bright side, Canada is finally launching an app for contact tracing although they are not calling it that.  The testing is still too slow here, some provinces are handling this poorly, with Alberta leading the way.  Ontario, where I live, is pressing to get on with K-12 without providing the resources.  Doug Ford's early out of character smart responses were, alas, out of character.  He is returning to form, and it is not good.

Meanwhile, in the US, my repeated statement "Biden will win if there is an election" seemed more

applicable with Trump's incredibly bad tweet and with polls showing that Biden will win ... if there is an election.  The GOP, by refusing to extend unemployment benefits, same to be in the same death spiral as the anti-maskers.  Ideologically, it might make sense.  As an election year stance, not at all.  I am of mixed feelings, as I want people to get the help they need (including more than a couple of relatives), but the country would be better off if the GOP gets crushed this November.  Both because the Dems could get more stuff done and because it might lead to the GOP changing, learning, and maybe figuring out a way to be a decent second party in this two party system.  But I really want to see people get the aid they need, I want the government to do what it takes to stop the spread of COVID, and I want the cities and states to get the help they need to treat the patients.  It is just an ugly, ugly time in the US.

Yes, prep for online teaching continues.

The glimmer of hope?  The protests are continuing and getting larger.  The efforts to repress in Portland have led to a wider mobilization, and that will lead to more voting and more activism.  John Lewis's death reminds us that good trouble is an important part of making progress, and there is a hell of a lot of good trouble being had out there.  The kids, as they say, are alright.

There Will Be An Election And There Will Be Violence

Trump's tweet has gotten everyone enraged and engaged--"hey, how about we postpone the election?"  Sure, it might be distraction sauce on a day where the economic toll of mishandling the pandemic was made clear, record-breakingly clear. 

The good news is that the President does not have the power to postpone an election--those dates are set by Congress, and elections are administered by states.  To change the election date would require a vote by Congress, and, guess what, one of the houses of Congress is controlled by the Democrats.  So, here is where veto-player theory comes in.... change is really hard so the status quo will remain.*

Of course, Republican-dominated states can choose not to have elections, which would mean what?  That the House and Senate become Democratic by default?  Well, who becomes President if there is no presidential election?  The Speaker of the House.  Ooops.  Now, it might not be Pelosi, as the Dems could pick another Speaker, but, yeah, this might just be why both McConnell and McCarthy (House Republican Leader) both shot down Trump's tweet immediately, unlike damn near most of his tweets.

So, no, there will be an election in November.  It will be utterly tainted because Trump wants it that way, and he will do what he can to limit mail-in ballots.  The irony of his efforts is that the more he makes the election itself an issue, the less complacent the Democratic voters will be AND the more legitimacy he gives to those who say that the Democracy itself is up for grabs in this election.

The urgency to have a landslide has increased due to this tweet and the other efforts to delegitimate the election.  The only real question now is whether the mobilization will offset the voter suppression.  The fed goons in Portland, now expanding to the rest of the country, may play a large role in who turns out and who is deterred.  So, I still worry about Biden winning--not because he won't have the support of the majority of voters--but because the election might be a farce.

All I can say for certain is that there will be violence.  There already has been, and, yes, when the DHS thugs beat voters in the fall, that will count as violence, too.  I am much more certain that Trump's basest base will engage in violence whenever Trump leaves the White House--whether it is by sickness, by being voted out, by being dragged out, whatever.  They will be violent.  And we will just have to get through that and then do the necessary stuff.  Obama indicated at the Lewis memorial some of the list--ending the filibuster, admitting DC and Puerto Rico as states, passing the Voting Rights Act, etc.  All this will do much to erode GOP power and hopefully give Biden the guts to do what is necessary--disband ICE, dramatically reform Customs/Border, disband DHS, and hold accountable those who engaged in criminal activity from Trump down to the "I was just following orders" assholes on the streets.

30-40% of American is going to be most upset, but they will have to lose badly to be taught that their way is unacceptable.  That Trump's way is unacceptable  It is going to be damned ugly, but as Obama reminded us in the eulogy, justice requires perseverance.


* That's really all I know for sure.  The rest is kind of speculative...\

Quarantine, Week 19: The Lamest Steve-Fest?

My birthday is coming up, and, as my friends and family know, I tend to use it as an excuse to spend money and enjoy ourselves for a week or so before and a week or so after.  There is no precise definition of how long Steve-fest goes on, but this year's Steve-fest lacks restaurants, movies, and hanging out with friends in person.  Instead, I intend to increase the pace of stress-baking and zooming. 

Today, I will be making cinna-buns.  King Arthur has yet to fail me, so I am looking forward to one of my very fave things to eat.  I did grab a cupcake already at the entirely too convenient cupcake shop next to the physio place.  I did try to make coffee shortbread cookies last weekend, but they failed utterly.  The Nigella Lawson app had a missing ingredient or two, so I guessed and, well, meh.  I think of all the stuff I have baked since March, I am proudest of the apple turnovers I made.  The challah was fun for both taste and size--it barely fit in the oven--and the shortbread cookies for two were very good.  I am going to make a second try at Nigella Lawson's chocolate cookie dough pots now that I have the proper size ramekins (yes, I bought them for exactly this recipe).  They tasted great before but were not as gushy as they were supposed to be because I didn't have the right equipment. 
Oh, and I have greatly enjoyed cooking as well with Nigella Lawson providing a good paella recipe, some simple pasta sauces involving pancetta, and more.  Because I have had no travel and am doing all of the cooking (Mrs. Spew has had bronchitis), I have sought to break the usual ruts by trying some new stuff.  They have mostly worked out.  I had never cooked with buttermilk or pancetta before.  Some new ingredients, a number of new dishes.




This week was notable as I got my haircut for the first time since February.  Why?  Because I had my first in-person meeting (we were widely spaced).  I can't say much about it, but I got some insights into how some people are thinking these days about the challenges facing Canada.  I also wore pants for the first in a few months and a suit/tie for the first time since the CDSN capstone event in March.  I was early so I had a chance to enjoy a beautiful, mostly quiet morning in downtown Ottawa.


The other notable event of the week was the announcement of the retirement of the Chief of the Defence Staff.  I have known Jon Vance since I interviewed him for my book long ago.  He had the distinction of being the only Canadian (and perhaps only allied) commander to have two tours in the same job.  Vance had to go back to commanding the Canadian troops in Kandahar because his successor was fired for sleeping with multiple subordinates (and perhaps also the negligent discharge of his firearm in a helicopter occupied by the CDS didn't help).  Vance served a much longer term than most (any?) CDS's--something close to six years.  It was a fairly tumultuous time--a major report on sexual harassment in the CAF came out just around the time he started, Trump became President upending most/all assumptions about Canada's place in the world, his #2 was investigated for leaking about a major procurement decision which led that position to be the Spinal Tap drummer of Canadian defense, and, oh, yes, a pandemic.  I guess I will be writing this weekend about Vance's legacy, but I have already done a couple of media hits putting things in context.

My outrage at my former home country continues--Trump and his brownshirts are expanding beyond Portland.  Thus far, the responses in the courts and in Congress have not achieved much, although the Black Lives Matter folks and their allies--the Moms and now the vets--are doing far better.  Just so deeply angering.

So, to distract myself from the madness down south (and in Ottawa, as the Liberals here are doing their best to shoot themselves in their feet due to their obliviousness and entitlement), I am going to embrace Steve-fest by eating too much and by arranging heaps of zooms with friends and family.  And enjoying the presents, although the lightsabers may not come until August or September.

Have You No Empathy, Sir?

Yesterday's speech by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was brilliant.  She did a great job of addressing the misogyny of the Republican Congressman and of, well, his party.  I want to focus on one piece of it:


This reminds me of a current turnabout by a friend of the GOP: Chuck Woolery.  He scoffed at COVID-19 until his son tested positive.  This is not that different from the various politicians who are homophobic in their political stances until one of their kids comes out. 

This inability to see how serious something is until it happens to oneself or one's family demonstrates a lack of empathy.  It should not be that hard to see how something matters as it affects others.  To only care about something because it affects oneself is more than self-centered, it is borderline sociopathic. 

This pathology within the GOP existed before Trump although he exemplifies it.  He would not have gotten the GOP's nomination if there were enough Republicans who had significant empathy.  Just his mocking of the disabled should have activated the empathy of Republican voters.

So, yes, it has become increasingly clear to me that one of the key differences between Trumpists and Democrats (with NeverTrumpers being difficult to code) is empathy and its absence. 

The latest round of this is obviously mask wearing (vaccines, too, and then the left anti-vaxxers also fit into the club of the empathy-deprived), as the whole idea of wearing masks now is about protecting others.  Masks may help a bit in protecting oneself, but their primary role in this crisis is to limit exposing others to one's own possible corona-infected emissions. 

The big question is this: how we change this?  How do we foster more empathy?  Can we force these people to watch endless Pixar movies?  There is some good news.  One of the problems that the GOP is having is that the kids are more tolerant and more empathetic.  Not all of them, but many of them have friends who LGBTQ, which makes the appeals to hate less effective.  The next generation has a great deal of empathy, which helps to explain why so many of the millennials and gen z support Black Lives Matter and other causes.  So, there is hope, but I have no idea how to generate empathy among the existing GOP elites. 

Maybe this pandemic, creating such a common challenge and so much pain, will lead to a more empathetic public.  I am looking for the glimmers of silver linings in all of this in this darkest timeline. 

If you have any ideas of how to generate more empathy among those devoid of it, let me know.

How Many Hostages Must China Take?

I hung out with some folks who work in the government today, and I learned something strange: there are folks who don't really see great power competition as a thing right now.  Which raises the question: how many hostages must China take before folks get serious about the coercive nature of the 2020's?  How many supply chains must China disrupt?  How many allies must be destabilized by Russia (two major ones thus far via Brexit and Trump)? 

In today's Battle Rhythm podcast (link to be added once it drops), I do argue that the liberal international order isn't gone and can be salvaged, but I want to be clear that there are significant threats out there.  Liberal IR folks (which is where I identify the closest) focus less on power (although it still matters) and more patterns of interests, and it is abundantly clear that the pattern of interests these days should not cause Canadians to be complacent and comfy.  The pattern is increasingly one of conflicting interests.  What China wants and what Russia wants and what North Korea wants are in conflict with what Canada wants.  We can debate how much of what the US is doing now is going to outlast Trump (I tend to think not so much, as the fundamental pattern of interests are overlapping), but the global distribution of interests is not quite aligned with Canada. 

Canada depends on the rules-based order because the rules, dare I say it, favor Canada.  Canada has done well with norms against revisions of boundaries, with relatively free trade, stable exchange rates, and the building of institutions to solve our collective problems.  Russia wants to break this stuff down because, well, they are in decline and chaos is a ladder for them.  Judo folks (players? fighters?) prefer their adversaries off balance, and that is what Putin is.  He is not thinking five steps ahead, he is just taking advantage of countries being distracted or divided.  China?  I used to think the Chinese leaders wanted to keep the current system with some modifications.  I don't think that any more, maybe because of nationalist pressures at home, maybe because they see American weakness and are trying to take advantage of it.  Whatever it is, they are supporting more belligerent policies and some of them are aimed at Canada.

So, I have to ask those in government (not just the politicians but the folks in various agencies): just what does China have to do to make them see China as a major threat that requires some creativity to deal with?  I have no solutions right now to the problem of China, but it is clear that is what we need to be thinking about.  Russia?  We need to thwart its trolling, but its demise is in the cards.  Well, I guess I am a Realist in part since my focus is on the rising power and not the declining power.  

Anyhow, I know now what I need to say in any conversation with folks about Canada's stance in the world: how much hostility does it take to re-think things?

If There Is An Election, Biden Wins

Sure, I made a similar prediction (no if on the election part) four years ago.  But it would be hard enough to win an election as an incumbent with historic unemployment and a pandemic, but even harder still when the government of the day not only bungles it badly but then fights efforts to do something about it.

But the point of this post is not that prediction but the qualifier.  Do I actually expect the election not to happen?  Well, what I really mean is that a decent, semi-fair election.  The pandemic makes an election challenging because people might not want to line up in ever-shrinking number of polling stations (hard to get people to volunteer at stations during a pandemic not to mention #voterfraudfraud).  Of course, one could focus more efforts on mail-in ballots.  Alas, not enough states are making it automatic (three).  Worse is that Trump and his minions are seeking to destroy the postal service, which, of course, is so crucial to much of his constituency.

Trump has done much to raise questions about the legitimacy of mail-in ballots despite using them himself.  I was not sweating that--I do sweat the effort to mess with the postal service.

But still, my caveat was not so serious until now.  Before, I could say: voting regulations are done by states, which means that Georgia can't vote democratic because Kemp is awful. But many states will not mess with the vote so much.  Kemp is an outlier perhaps.

The events in Portland have raised my anxiety quite a bit.  The deployment of masked (ironic?) brownshirts (ok, camo means only partially brown) into US cities to stop vandals and protesters could be a test for sending such forces into cities to disrupt voting or deter voters.  The use of government-sanctioned thugs to beat and detain people without cause is the most worrisome development besides all the others (giving intel to the Russians, not protecting the US from Russian interference, and on and on).  So, yeah, I worry about whether the election in November will be competitive.

The stakes could not be higher--the US can barely get through four years of Trump.  Eight would probably lead to twelve or sixteen or more with Don Jr or Ivanka taking over.  Yeah, it is that bad.  The institutions have been torn apart, but we can see their remains.  Thus far, they can be rebuilt.  But if this is how Trump behaves before an election, imagine what they will do once they are completely unaccountable.

And, always, the answer to "who radicalized you, Steve" is Donald J. Trump and his band of arsonists.

Ranking the Arsonists: Who Gets A Facecard

This is from a kickstarter, so I am not the only one with this idea
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/98409625/trump-personality-identification-playing-cards

During the invasion of Iraq, units were given decks of playing cards with the faces of the worst of the regime, folks who were targeted for capture or killing.  Saddam Hussein was the ace of spades.  I have been thinking a lot lately about a similar deck for the worst of the Trump era that, in an ideal world, would be targeted for prosecution.  And if not prosecution, then the fate that the Dread Pirate Roberts suggests for Prince Humperdink--a life of shame and ostracism.  A boy can dream, right?

Quarantine, Week 18: A Tale of Two Realities

It was the worst of times, it was, um, not so bad.  The contrast between the US and everything else just gets starker and starker.  I worry for my family and friends, even as life goes on up here.  My emotions ran the gamut from frustration to satisfaction to anger to sadness as events unfolded there and here.

Teaching Defence and Security Online: Learning From Others

This week, the Canadian Defence and Security Network held a Teaching Workshop.  It really isn't in our mandate, but we have the resources, the time, and the desire to help facilitate collective action, so more than 20 scholars from civilian and military (Canadian Forces College) institutions came together.  It was a very fruitful afternoon, although I am learning that running these kinds of workshops requires multitasking and a heap of energy. 

What did I learn?  [Not going to give credit to any individuals--we didn't say it was Chatham but we didn't say it wasn't]  This is pretty rough, so if you have suggestions, put them in the comments, please.

Falling Short, Aiming to Do Better

Last month, I posted the CDSN's response to the George Floyd murder and protests.  Those events reminded me that the CDSN was formed in part to foster a more diverse and inclusive defence and security community and that we have not done enough.  This week's post at Duck of Minerva by Carla Norrlöf and Cheng Xu reminded me that I had been meaning to post about what I have been doing and what the CDSN has been doing to do better.

Rapid Reaction to Carleton's Rapid Reactions

I got two emails this morning from Carleton--results of a survey of the students about their experience last spring and a memo about an extension of the tenure clock.  Overall, I continue to be most impressed with Carleton's reactions to this crisis.  Committing early to going online this fall was huge--providing clarity and sanity while giving profs a chance to try to give a better online experience than they could with the sudden transition in March.

So, here are some of my reactions to the latest stuff, starting with the survey.   A random sample of 5000 students were chosen, almost 35% responded in May and June, which meant that the survey was put together quickly in April and early May.  Well done.

Quarantine, Week 17: Dizzy

Last week, I discussed how I felt things were breaking.  This week was such a mix of good news and bad news that it was perhaps the most dizzying of q-weeks.  The different Supreme Court decisions were dizzying themselves, both better than expected and about as bad as can be expected.  The contrast between the President actually not being above the law in theory and then absolutely above it in practice with Roger Stone's commutation was like a whiplash.  The progress made in Canada and in NY and MA combined with the pandemic doing the exponential dance in Texas, Arizona, and, alas, California was enough to spin anyone around.  I keep on realizing that Mrs. Spew and myself (and Furloughed Spew out in LA) are pretty lucky, but then again, the Mrs and I were supposed to be on a safari this week.

Even the big SCOTUS decision regarding Trump's taxes was dizzying.  Woot, the President is not above the law.  Oh damn, this is likely to kick the tax reveal until after the election.  Trump's lawyers sought to play the clock, and they won on that score (probably).  Which sucks.  It was striking that the vote was 7-2 on the specifics and then 9-0 on the major principles.  Of course, Alito and Thomas can vote that way when it is a foregone conclusion.  Still, an impressive statement.  I still have no idea what Kavanaugh is doing.  That the decision must have caused Trump a great deal of stress and anger is a good thing.  He has had so much impunity in his life that any cuts and bruises, minor as they might be in their practical impact, must hurt quite a bit, and, yes, I want Trump to hurt.  I really hope the implication of the logic of the decision causes the next Department of Justice (the current one is utterly broken) to kill the whole concept that a sitting president can't be prosecuted--remember that decision that disarmed Mueller (or that Mueller let disarm himself)?

We saw the Stone commutation/pardon coming.  Stone advertised that he was staying silent for exactly this reason--these guys are not subtle about anything.  So, Trump commits one of the clearest abuses of power, one that was clearly imagined when the Framers were discussing impeachment.  Now that it has happened, well, hey, impeach the guy again?  Actually, why the hell not?  Any impeachable offense should be investigated and then should be processed.  Let the GOP Senate vote again to protect Trump in the days ahead of the election.  Sure, there is not much time, but the investigation can be short--just collect Stone's statements where he incriminates Trump, vote in the House, and then let the GOP in the Senate incriminate themselves.

The government responses to the pandemic are just so aggravating, frustrating, and,yes, maddening.  The good news is that in much of Canada, the numbers are going down.  Ottawa had something like four new cases last week, and the new death toll in Ontario is approaching zero.  The bad news is that the United States in most maps looks like a sea of disease.  It didn't have to be this way--the South and Southwest had plenty of time to get things right.  They opened before they closed, the governors made it harder for localities to require masks, and so on.  The Canadian frustration that too little thought and effort went into figuring out the school problem with too much focus on bars and restaurants is also an American problem.  It is just that the American situation is so much worse that the schools are eclipsed for semi-decent reasons there right now.  In Canada, the frustration of parents and educators is reaching a boil--we shall see if it leads to something.  I talked about this last week, and not much progress in policy has been made but the debate is shifting.

My wife and I continued our exploration of rural Ontario, as we drove to Perth.  It is a neat town with lots of shops for all kinds of stuff and our destination--the Perth Pie Company.  Oh and a mammoth cheese display.  We then hiked through a watershed park, in part inspired by all of those nature shows we watched when Furloughed Spew was just Kid Spew.  Not quote the nature experience we had in mind six months ago.  Our plans involved going to a conference near Capetown and then going to Krueger park to see the Big 5 (lions, hippos, rhinos, giraffes, and, um, lions?) and then onto Victoria Falls.  We had planned to splurge because it would be a once in a lifetime experience.  Well, we pushed the deposit until next year (we think, the company may or may not exist anymore), but realizing that we could have been doing something a bit more special than Perth stung a bit.  But again, we are lucky, as the only price we have paid thus far is some stress shopping led to some money spent on stuff we did not need (new leather backpack and travel bag, for example).  Our friends with school-age kids are aging before our eyes, and there is very little I can do to help them.


On the higher ed teaching front, the personal was far better than the news.  My co-teaching and I have made progress on organizing our fall class, so now the real hard part--taping myself deliver some coherent mini-lectures. The American news, as always, was awful with new regulations forcing schools to either have face to face classes or their international students will be kicked out of the country.  This is both a moral problem and a financial one.  A financial one since so many places rely on international students paying elevated tuition.  Tensions between US/Canada and China plus the pandemic will make a dent there already, but kicking out most international students will absolutely gut already precarious university budgets and push more than a few colleges into bankruptcy/closure.  Then there is the moral problem--universities are already struggling with balancing risk to students versus financial health.  Now they have to consider what happens to students who can't study their topics back at home (think about the social sciences).  Oh, and there is also a larger economic issue--education has been a great export for the US.  This is simply bad for the US economy.  Oh, and bad for "soft power" as well.  Just an awful decision that only xenophobes who hate universities can like (yes, Stephen Miller remains too powerful).

Oh, and there is racism in my neighborhood.  The bike path in this story is one I use frequently.  The woman who called 911 because of a Black Canadian resting on the path's bridge could easily have gone by him without risking exposure to the virus.  So, instead, she exposed him to a dose of racism. 

So, yeah, a pretty frustrating week.  So, here's two bits of pop culture that might help.  Since I am rewatching Star Wars: Rebels, which is more delightful the second time around (perhaps because my TV has a better sound system, and this show has such great Star Wars sound), how about:

 And a friend posted this on FB, and since, yes, I am old enough and cheesy enough to be a fan of Styx, this is great.  Have a great, less dizzy week.

25 Years of T-Tracking

Last week, on July 1st, a bunch of folks announced their first days as tenured folks, as Associate Professors.  I didn't realize that date was an anniversary for me until today--that July 1st, 1995 was the first day as a tenure-track assistant professor.  Before that, I had two tenuous years as a Visiting Assistant Professor.  I was asked this past week if I had ever considered the non-academic road, and I answered: 1994-1995 was my last year on the job market (well, as someone with no permanent job).

What did the switch from visiting to tenure-track prof mean?  Not quite job security since the tenure decision was still ahead of me.  But it did mean:

• Going to department meetings.  I felt excluded at UVM as temps didn't go to meetings.  Damn, what was I thinking.  
• Trying (and failing) to be quiet at these meetings.  I had a pact with another junior faculty member to kick each other if we spoke up.  We didn't want to piss off people, and we wanted shorter meetings.  We didn't keep our promises, especially when the senior faculty wanted to give a special exception to the worst dude in the junior faculty.
• More supervision.  I didn't immediately get a heap of Phd students or MA students to supervise, but it started. 
• Some service work.  I ultimately created the department webpage with very limited skills.
• Pressure to write grants.  This became a major priority for TTU, whereas the previous place didn't care what I did, especially during my second year (having not gotten the tenure track position in the first year).
• No longer obsessing about the job market.  Oh wait, I didn't really stop.  I don't think I applied for any positions in my first year at Tech, but in my second?  Probably and definitely the third year.
• Being part of something.  At the visiting job, I was just teaching and doing my own thing.  I had no connection to the larger department although I had friends among the faculty.  At Tech, I was part of a group--the junior faculty--who had similar ideas about stuff AND we had much other stuff in common.  Like, kids the same age, so we hung out with each other.  I tended to see ourselves as the crew in Hogan's Heroes--stuck in an unpleasant place but having fun subverting the older folks and hanging out.  
• A better teaching load--2-2.  Two courses a semester rather than 3-3 like I had in Vermont.   With it came a requirement to teach American and Texas Public Policy, which was stuff I never studied before (or since).  Once I figured it out, it was actually pretty easy--big class, a culture of multiple choice exams, and I learned stuff.  I also applied stuff from other areas to these topics so that was fun, too. 

It is hard to believe it all started twenty-five years ago, which, if one includes gestation, was one pre-existing condition named Jessica ago.  I would have left the profession had I not gotten this job, and I love doing what I do.  I really should have celebrated more last week on Canada Day, which is also tenure/promotion day in North America.  I know I have been quite lucky.  I have had great colleagues and great students ever since despite much whining by me along the way.  So, congrats to all the folks who reached their goals, have increased job security, and far fewer f's to give.  Rock on!

Quarantine, Week 16: The Week Everything Started To Break

While it was an easy week at the House of Spew, we are a lucky island in a sea of unforced errors, lousy governance, and exploding disease.  When I started these weekly posts on the state of the pandemic, I half-joked that it would chart my descent into madness.  I haven't gone mad (at least as far as I can tell and not yet) because this quarantine has not been as tight as Euro-quarantine and because I have remain connected via zooms to friends, new and old. This may change once I start taping my video segments for the fall classes and have daily fights with the course management system. 

But watching the US and Canada (one more so than the other) screw up the basics of this, leading to unnecessary death, suffering, and economic losses is enough to drive anyone mad.  My Canadian friends are in a righteous uproar as they have noticed governments being far more concerned about opening bars and restaurants than having good plans for the fall's K-12 educational system.  Lauren Dobson-Hughes wrote about education as a human right, and my other friends have made it plainly clear that a 1-2 day a week in class kind of plan will mean that the only economy will not return, that women will drop out of the job market, and that kids will be left behind.  Sure, it is hard to get this right with much conflicting information about the transmission rates of kids, but Lauren is right that the governments of Canada--local, provincial, federal--have not been treating this as the priority it should be.  If only for the sake of the economy, this should be one of the top priorities.  People can't work if their kids are not at school--it is that simple.  I can see my friends who have kids at home age rapidly as this is causing an incredible amount of stress--the combo of parenting, home-schooling, and working simultaneously.  This week it seemed all to come together perhaps because of the plans being rolled out.  My American friends are having similar experiences.

Update: here's some more evidence of the desperation parents are feeling:

Ottawa’s English public school board sent a survey to parents yesterday about a return to school in the fall, and they made other respondents’ comments visible at the end for up-voting. I’ve never seen survey responses like this, there is so much visible desperation. pic.twitter.com/5DsonjfV5V

— Shannon Proudfoot (@sproudfoot) July 4, 2020

In the US more so than in Canada, the higher ed plans are also getting much heat.  The NYT had a piece about profs resisting the plans, and, of course, they fucked up the headline and picture and highlighted a very abnormal prof.  However, the gist of the story was right--profs are concerned that the desperate effort to keep tuition coming in will lead to wishful (or magical) thinking and plans that will have to be revised mid-semester.  I wrote that there really is only one way to go.

Of course, that pales in comparison to what is happening in the US more broadly.  The rate of transmission, of infections, of ICU beds being filled are all going up and up.  While a bit of this is the inevitable ups and downs of reactions to a pandemic (see California getting hit hard after opening up a bit), much of it is bad leadership and bad governance.  It is no accident that the states led by governors who were more concerned with kissing Trump's ass than the health of their constituents--Georgia, Texas, Arizona--are having severe outbreaks.  It is incredibly frustrating because these states had some time to get things right.  Just as the US reacted too slowly to events in Italy and China, these states could watch what was happening to NYC and Seattle, and they could have acted to prevent much of this.  Instead, they denied that they had to do much, and now they are panicking, making masks mandatory way too late and reversing some of the decisions to open things up.

Oh, and the Supreme Court continues to rule that states don't have to change voting procedures just because of a little pandemic.  FFS.

Of course, much of the blame does deservedly go to Trump.  At every stage, he has chosen to do the wrong thing.  There are two bits of news this week that just break everything: the US buying the world's supply of a key medicine that has had some success at treating COVID 19 and then this:

NEW: 'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirus https://t.co/KsVb76v1cd

— Geoff Bennett (@GeoffRBennett) July 3, 2020

Yeah, the message is one of surrender.  There is still plenty the government can do, but Trump's people are basically telling the American people to lie back and think of England.  You get my drift.
Of course, this is a move of desperation as the pandemic escalates and the polls dive. Given that the US is alone among the advanced democracies in having an escalating first wave, it is clear where the responsibility lies. 

We are not broken, not by a longshot, but it does feel as everything around us is breaking.  On this, one of the worst Independence Days in American history, we can hold onto the fact that the US got through the other ones, including the first which took place amid more than a few major defeats, the one four score and seven years later with the country at war with itself, and so on.  The only way out is through.  Connect to friends and family as it helps a great deal, preventing or at least slowing my descent into madness.  Well, that and stress-baking and stress-eating.  So, continue to stay at home if you can, wash your hands, and, yes, wear a mask. 

You Must Choose to Decide: Going Online in a Pandemic

There has been discussion for weeks now about how to manage the fall at institutions of higher education in the US and Canada.  I am quite lucky in that Carleton made the smart, responsible choice early so the focus has been on shifting resources to helping us go online and on us taking the entire summer to prep for the fall.  The fall teaching online experience will be better than the rushed move in March.

Other places are dithering, are suggesting that the fall will go on with some modifications, and some even are imposing pretty punitive rules that put professors in difficult and even dangerous positions.  Inspired by a great thread today by Danielle Lupton, let me explain the ordering of the choices and tradeoffs and then steal from Laura Seay about the tuition challenge.

Yes, face to face classes [F2F] are better than online classes, holding everything else constant.  Sure, there are folks who love delivering classes online and do it well, but most profs prefer to engage the students in person for all kinds of reasons--body language helps signal to the prof that the content is being delivered well or not, it tends to be far more interactive, one can change things on the fly more easily, etc.  But we cannot hold all else constant in a pandemic.*

* There are some who argue that the disease is not so fatal for young folks so let's just roll with it.  I have two responses to this: a) in a class of 600 students, maybe one will die due to the virus.  I guess that is no biggie?  b) this disease can be brutal even in mild cases, so let's not be so blase about "hey, few deaths, so what?"

• Communicating through masks makes lectures harder to understand and student discussion much more difficult.
• Distancing does the same.  The spaces that may be used, as Danielle points out, often have awful acoustics--gyms, for instance.  
• Will have to do whatever we do F2F in ways that can be taped and uploaded so that students who can't attend in person due to visa problems, travel restrictions, home situations, etc can still take the class.  This, of course, means doing more work, essentially producing two versions of the class.

So, F2F in a perfect world > Online in a pandemic > F2F in a pandemic.

What happens if/when there is a major outbreak on campus?  Will the universities and colleges just continue on or will they send everyone home and move to online?  My bet is the latter as all the liability waivers will not stop students and profs and staff from fleeing a major outbreak.  So, if the plan is to be on campus, the plan is really to repeat what happened in March: moving quickly online with little prep.  Oh, and having helped infect a community where the school is based and then infect the communities to which the students return.  USC has already switched to going online as the cases in and near LA are skyrocketing.  Better now than September or October although May or June would have been better still.  Just like everything else with this virus, acting early is better than acting late.

Well, shouldn't students pay less tuition since they are not getting the same education as they would be in person?  As Laura rightly argues, teaching online involves more costs, not less.  Carleton is hiring staffers to help profs move their courses online.  That costs money.  The profs are going to be working more, not less, for the same amount of money (or less since schools are cutting retirement benefits).  There is more preparation involved with teaching online--I have already done more course prep this summer so far than I do in an average summer--as we need to figure out how to deliver the content, we need to record videos and make sure they don't suck, we need to figure out additional materials, we need to design new assessments (requirements to be graded), and so on.  The students are going to need just as much or more online materials--so universities have to continue to pay for subscriptions to journals and presses as well as media of all kinds.  Info tech staff will have to be paid and probably supplemented.  And, yes, universities will cut staff who feed students who aren't there and to maintain the physical plant, but can't eliminate all of that entirely since a lack of maintenance will undermine the investments made in all of that stuff for when students return.

The key is this: this thing is mostly temporary, lasting a year or two, depending on how badly the US screws it up.  The only way out is through.  There should be more financial aid for folks who can't afford universities in the middle of a pandemic recession, governments should shift more resources to higher ed.  But since they aren't doing the right stuff for k-12, I have my doubts.  I am more certain that a number of colleges and universities will go bankrupt and cease to exist as a result of the pressures of this pandemic combined with bad decisions of the past, changing demographics, and all the rest.  One way to make sure more schools die is to demand cuts in tuition.  That does no one any favors.

We are stuck in a bunch of related collective action problems where moving first is hard, where individually rational decisions can lead to collectively bad outcomes.  Governments were built to help finesse such problems.  Alas, many governments are failing to do what is needed.  They aren't working hard to provide K-12, which means the economy can't really return to what it was.  Governments aren't working to help universities weather the story--they are cutting support instead.  We are, in short, eating our seed corn, which is a dumb way to behave.

There is probably good research and good lessons to be learned on all of this stuff. Where is all of that stuff?  At your local university.

And as always, if you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice: