Saturday, July 15, 2017

Game of Thrones Returns: Place Your Bets

The joy of blogging about proposition bets is I know get regular emails from a guy who represents on various possible wagers.  Mostly, I have noticed stuff on who may last or not in the Trump administration, but the most recent one was regarding Game of Thrones: who wins, who dies, etc.  They took a fan survey to develop the basic expectations and then set the odds.

So, of course, on the eve of the penultimate season, I have thoughts.  So, below are the odds with my comments (with spoilers for those who have not watched the sixth season):


Daenerys Targaryen: +350
Jon Snow: +500
Sansa Stark:  +750
Tyrion Lannister: +1250
Arya Stark: +1250
Petyr Baelish: +1250
Cersei Lannister:  +1750
Gendry: +1750
The Night King:  +1750
Any Child of Jon Snow: +2100
Bran Stark: +2100
Jaime Lannister: +2100
Prince Aegon Targaryen: +2750
Euron Greyjoy: +3500
Lord Varys: +3500
Jaquen Hghar: +5000
Davos Seaworth:  +5000
Any Sand Snake: +5000
Yara Greyjoy: +5000
Stannis Baratheon: +5000
Theon Greyjoy:  +7500
Samwell Tarly: +7500
Brienne of Tarth: +10000
Bronn: +10000
Field (Any character not listed): +10000
Victarion Greyjoy: +15000
Eddison Tollett: +17500
Most of these are wastes of money, although it is tempting to bet the Field (none of those listed).  While George RR Martin might actually write a finale that has the bad guys win (the Night King), I don't think the folks making the show will end eight seasons with the end of the world and the zombification of Westeros.  Tyrion would be the fun bet, as he would make the most amusing King, but he is likely remain the Hand of someone.  I am confused about how the betting would be resolved if Dany and Jon married as Targaryens are wont to do.  I'd have to go chalk here as I am an IR person and Dragons are nuclear weapons in this world.  To win a song of ice and fire, um, the folks wielding the fire should be the winner.

No one (survives Season 7): -150
Jamie Lannister:  +350
Arya Stark: +500
Daenerys Targaryen: +750
Tyrion Lannister: +1500
Herself (Suicide): +1750
Any other character or cause of death (Field): +2500
So tempting to bet the field here--long shot but if Cersei were to die this season, it could easily be someone or something else.  If a dragon, does that count as Daenerys?  Hmm.  Ok, I bet the field here although I do like the Kingslayer Redux idea.  I do think she lasts this season and dies the next, but I will still stick with Field for the best chance of making bucks.

No fight in season 7: -175
Sandor Clegane (The Hound):  +150
Gregor Clegane (Zombie version of The Mountain):  +350

I'd bet on no fight yet. This would seem to be a last season kind of thing.

Yes: +210
No:  -250

No idea what this means.

What bets did they whiff on?  What are other things one would want to wager about?

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