Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Good News About Brexit!

Brexit is a mitigated disaster.  What mitigates it? It makes me feel good about my stances on secession in advanced democracies.  Huh?  Basically, all the reasons I have opposed secessionism in otherwise functional countries have played out here.  And, yes, Brexit is secession.
  • 50%+1 is a crappy rule to make decisions about massive social/political change.  It is too thin--there is not enough consensus, which means not just parties fighting but parties divided on this.  You can't tell your Leavers/Remainers without a program.  I was reminded by the ever-wise Peter Trumbore that Theresa May was a Remainder until she became Prime Minister.
  • Proponents of secession will play down all of the likely costs, making it seem as if nothing will change except for the few things that annoy people the most (paying into the system, mobility of undesired folks).  Yet as things progress, we find out all kinds of costs and complications including Northern Ireland!
  • Defenders of the status quo will be slow to mobilize as they will take for granted that secession would be a dumb thing to do.
  • Outbidding and fears of it cause leaders to do dumb things: David Cameron feared his right flank and promised to hold a referendum that would surely not go anywhere.  
  • Most importantly, unless one is facing serious repression, secession is just not worth it.  I might end up supporting renewed Scottish separatism simply because I could sympathize with them that they don't want to go down with the ship of fools that is being led by May and Corbyn.  
There are lots of ways to address grievances in a political system--divorce is only better than coups and civil war.  Think of the kids!  Seriously, that the old folks are driving this train off a cliff suggests something is very, very wrong.  Poor kids.

No comments: