Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Making Money Off Of Dissent

It was perhaps inevitable that a sports book online would start taking bets on the Quebec strife.  Specifically, there is over/under for the strike is September 1st.  They have also set bets on:
  • what the tuition increase will be (2.25:1 on my best guess $200-$300);
  • provincial referendum of 4:1 by end of the year on fees;
  • will the new Quebec Minister of Education lose her job by the end of the year: 9-2;
  • Even money that Loi 78 that was supposed to quell the protests but had the reverse effect would be amended by the end of the year (I would bet that it will be).
  • Martial law: 11-2.  Really?  I think the odds would be much longer.  I would bet no martial law--if I had spare cash (moving makes wagering right now difficult), I would bet as much as I could on no martial law, even if it means betting $5.50 to win one.  It is a sure bet--martial law?  Please.
  • Fines on CLASSE, the most extreme of the groups--with a sweetspot of 2.4 to 1 that the group will be fined $100k-$500k.  
  • Next is various celebrities--who would be the first to wear the red patch, indicating support for the students with Michael Moore a very tempting 7 to 1.  The problem is verifying who is first among those listed.  I would kind of like to bet on Youppi.  Of course, I would then buy a Youppi costume and make it happen.....
What prop bets would I add to this?
  • Odds that student protesters will fall into a sinkhole: 1 to 2.  That is, I think is more likely that this will happen.
  • The students will do something that will undercut public support--it is their turn to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory  Let's say: 3 to 1.  
  • Pauline Marois of the Parti Quebecois will stop wearing the red square before the strike ends: 10 to 1. Odds that she will stop wearing the red square if some government official (including police officers) is harmed seriously during a protest: 10 to 1.
  • That the protesters will focus exclusively on corruption as that is the most severe problem facing Quebec: 100 to 1.  
  • That Jean Charest will call an election before the end of June: 25 to 1. Entirely motivated by my moving schedule.
  • Odds that I will be in downtown Montreal in the next month after 6pm: 1000 to 1.  No thanks.  My rules for ultimate subbing--not going to cross a bridge or go into or past downtown for ultimate have been reinforced by the past 14 weeks of this mess.

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