Monday, July 25, 2011

Key Limit to Scholarly Relevance

Dan Drezner has a great post today about how the foreign policy smart set (his phrase) gets so frustrated by domestic politics that they tend to recommend domestic political changes that are never going to happen.

I would go one step further and suggest that one of the key problems for scholars who want to be relevant for policy debates is that we tend to make recommendations that are "incentive incompatible."  I love that phrase.  What is best for policy may not be what is best for politics, and so we may think we have a good idea about what to recommend but get frustrated when our ideas do not get that far. 

Lots of folks talking about early warning about genocide, intervention into civil wars and the like blame "political will."  That countries lack, for whatever reason, the compulsion to act.  Well, that is another way of saying that domestic politics matters, but we don't want to think about it. 

Dan's piece contains an implication which is often false--that IR folks have little grasp of domestic politics.  Many IR folks do tend to ignore or simplify the domestic side too much, but there is plenty of scholarship on the domestic determinants of foreign policy/grand strategy/war/trade/etc.  Plenty of folks look at how domestic institutions and dynamics can cause countries to engage in sub-optimal foreign policies (hence the tradeoff implied in my second book--For Kin or Country). 

The challenge, then, is to figure out what would be a cool policy and how that cool policy could resonate with those who are relevant domestically.  That is not easy, but it is what is necessary.  To be policy relevant requires both parts--articulating a policy alternative that would improve things and some thought about how the alternative could be politically appealing.

Otherwise, we can just dream about the right policy and gnash our teeth when it never happens.

Summer Camp Redux

I have posted before about summer camp, but was reminded today by a ridiculous NYT piece about folks taking private planes to camp (does the NYT have a thing for making camp seem so extravagant) and by a FB status of a friend that today is actually the 35th anniversary of my first day at camp.  Today is the first day of the second four week session at my old camp.  I started in the summer of 1976--yep, the bicentennial year.  I went for four weeks for each of my first couple of years and then entire summers for the rest of my teens (and then some as a counselor).

A friend of mine reacted to the NYT story on FB by pondering whether parents still forced their kids to go to camp.  I had a quick reaction to that, not only because I had so much more fun and, well, self-esteem at camp but also because the next generation seems to be having the same experience.  As I mentioned in the previous post on this topic, I lived for summer as I did not enjoy my school growing up and never felt like I fit in.  At camp, I certainly did, especially as the years went by and as I developed friendships with not only the kids in my age group but also the counselors and administrators that saw me as a fellow lifer.

My daughter has posted a series of videos people made at camp, and it is hard to imagine that there would be that much joy in a similar video made at school.  It is not just the absence of work, but the shared community that makes the difference.  Plus the absence of bullies (at least in the Saideman experiences), the reduced barriers among cliques, and the opportunities for extreme silliness.*
* The night that Sky Lab was due to crash, my unit of 12-13 year olds (five bunks of campers) was having a sleepout in the gym down at the bottom of the hill.  The counselors thought it would be fun to throw pebbles onto the tin roof to make it sound like the pieces of the space station were hitting the camp.  Much chaos ensued, including the throwing of watermelon rinds.  I believe it became known as Rino night, but I could be wrong.   
I guess some folks did not enjoy summer camp, but the repeaters almost always did so.  Sure, for eight-weekers, the seventh week tended to drag (hot Maryland August did not help).  Anyhow, it is pretty easier to fall into a state of nostalgia during the middle of the summer, thinking of great summers long ago, especially as various deadlines start to approach with the new school year.  Where did the summer go?

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Sometimes Intuitive Is Enough

Scholars generally seek to come up and prove counter-intuitive arguments. They are sexier, more attention-grabbing and thwart the usual "so what" question.  So, I have enjoyed the past few years the idea that xenophobia has positive qualities, particularly that fear/intolerance of others may serve as a break on irredentism (expanding one's country to include territory inhabited by lost kin).  A pretty jazzy counter-intuitive argument, as far as political science kind of arguments can be thought of as jazzy. 

Events in Oslo remind me that xenophobia is usually seen as negative because hate is inherently bad and leads to bad outcomes.  We know very little about this guy, Anders Behring Breivik, who killed so many, but it does seem to be the case that his personal ideology was one of xenophobia--hating the immigrants coming to Norway and hating Norway for tolerating these foreign folks.  Yes, one can have anti-immigration positions and not choose to kill lots of people, so it probably has a lot more to do with his personal dysfunction than with the "cause" of hating foreigners.  We should not paint all xenophobes with the same brush, as many can just protest and organize politically.

Still, hate is hate, and those who preach hate usually end up either preaching violence or creating an environment where violence seems to be a solution.  I tweeted about Oklahoma City when I first heard of the attack, as I was flying back from Australia and got the news and internet connections intermittently.  I thought of OK City mostly because I screwed up early that day, leading class discussions about it (it was my second year of teaching) and basically assuming it was done by Muslims.  Timothy McVeigh taught me a lesson that day--not to jump too quickly to conclusions.

I do think that McVeigh may have more to teach us about this new event--about the combination of unbalanced loner and a movement to hate others.  There has been a steady rise of anti-immigration and anti-Muslim political movements in Europe (and elsewhere).  This event may have a positive impact in that it may break the momentum, as the radical right fell apart in the US at least for a time after OK city.  At least, I have to hope so.

In some ways, this event reminds me more of Columbine than anything else. That there is a violence outbidding process where each crazed individual must up the stakes to get attention.  Suicide is not enough, killing a few co-workers is not enough, a small bomb is not enough, a shooting spree has been done, so the acts become larger and larger.  I am afraid that we will see more damage done by damaged individuals.  The technology of self/other destruction continues to "improve" so that the next guy will do even more harm. 

Coming back to the Saideman and Ayres book, I should note that we recognize that xenophobia's positive possibilities (deterring aggression) traded off of the negative (domestic discrimination against out-groups).  So, in the Norwegian case, there is no irredentism to be deterred, so xenophobia only has the normal, intuitive, negative consequences that we have long understood.  

Depressing non-counter-intuitive thoughts on a hot summer's weekend.  Time to go to the movies.

Audience Reactions to HP8

NS for those who have not seen the movie or read the books:


Friday, July 22, 2011

Flying Back From Sydney

And we got some significant turbulence over the South Pacific!  Could it be an island with mysterious electromagnetic properties?  Maybe.  So, it is quite suitable that today Lost had its last (maybe) appearance at the Comic-Con (if only I was in grad school at UCSD now!) that this bit of film was shown:


HT to Sepwinall.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Band of Brothers, Hogwarts Version

Catching sporadic bits of internet as I sojourn back to Montreal from Cairns via Sydney (rain!), LA and Chicago, and I am both amused and annoyed that people are denying that Hermione was not a hero in the series and especially the last book/movie. 

Yes, the series has Harry's name, and he is, indeed, the leader of Dumbledore's Army, but there is not a single hero in the series but many, many, many.  Sure, some lit major will say that there is only one hero and anti-hero, but I don't really care.  The book shows truly heroic behavior by girls and boys, men and women, downtrodden species (a.k.a minorities/ethnic groups such as house elves, centaurs, hypogriffs, etc), and so on.  Even those who did indeed find the dark arts attractive can find heroes within themselves for the right cause (love, of course).  Even girls who are too clingy may give their lives for their school and their friends.  Parents were willing to orphan their kid for the cause (Remus and Tonks, a far better orphaning than that by Jin at the end of Lost).  I could go on and on.

The point can be best made by a quote that Band of Brothers used to close the series: "I was not a hero.  But I served in a company of heroes."  Sure, BoB was real, and Dumbledore's Army is not, but both can serve as inspirations, particularly in these challenging times.  It is the choices we make, and these folks made difficult decisions, screwing up often but willing to risk much for the cause.

So, is Hermione a hero?  Um, duh.

Dive! Dive! Dive! for Real

Day 2 of Cairns was almost entirely at sea, and I mean that in a good way.  I had my first diving experience and I learned many things.  First, don't dive and then fly.  Apparently, one could die in a  pressurized cabin with bubbles doing magical things to one's circulatory system.  So, instead of two dives, I went on one so that I could fly 18 hours later.  Second, it really was not hard to keep breathing.  So much easier to dive than to snorkel.  I did a fair amount of snorkeling after my dive, and I sucked in more and more salt water as the went along.  Third, it was a heap of fun.  Saw plenty of colorful fish and even some colorful coral even if the reef is not what it once was. 

I only realized while walking back to my hotel how similar this diving experience is to skiing.  The boat took 1.5 hours to get to the reef, just like it takes about the same amount of time to get to good skiing near my house.  Both require heaps of expensive equipment, and both can kill you.  Oh, a big difference: no whales on the way home from skiing: thar be humpbacks.   Pretty stunning. 

So, a good couple of days after two days of conferencing.  Tomorrow, I get to live through Friday, July 21st twice--makes me think of time travel every time I come back from Australia.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Regret #27 Not Taking Psych

I wish I had taken psychology in college.  This science is really the art of @$#$% with people:


This one experiment demonstrates why politics can be so messed up--we are all about short term gratification.  I have no clue as to how valid or widely accepted this stuff is, as I am not going to read a heap of psych stuff.  I am just going to accept the youtube clip as valid social science.

and thanks to Grantland's youtube hall of fame of the week.

Making Mine Marvel in the Future

I liked Maguire as Spidey and thought Raimi could return to the heyday of Spidey 1/2, but this new reboot does not look half-bad:

And more Emma Stone is, indeed, more Emma Stone.  Seems like her backstory changes much and she will have more spine than the comic book version, but that would not be hard if I remember correctly.  I still think Emma would have been a perfect MJ. 

I do wonder if making the death of Peter's parents a central mystery is a good thing or not.  I guess it depends on execution.

Maybe JFK Was Not That Smart

thanks to xkcd.com

Australia Tourism Redux

I have been in Australia since Sunday, but today was the first real day of tourism.  I spent the past couple of days at a workshop on civil-military integration in the various efforts by the outsiders (and some insiders) in Afghanistan.  Of course, we disagreed about what we meant by civil-military stuff.  The fun part was when my paper was entirely ignored since it shared the same session as a paper on the New Zealand effort that most of the audience found to be too positive.  I guess I hit the sweetspot of being critical yet not entirely negative.

Anyhow, I spent this morning flying to Cairns and this afternoon walking around the town.  No crocs seen thus far.  I did see a lot of places for backpackers and even a few actual backpackers.  the weather is a nice change from "winter" in Canberra, which did get somewhat cold. If I was not not acclimatized to summer in Montreal, I would be laughing more at what they consider to be winter.  Still, Cairns is a very nice contrast. 

I do have a few questions about Cairns and about Australia.  First, why is the second biggest language here German?  Is Cairns a major destination for German tourists?  Just curious.  Second, why was John Travolta introducing the Qantas safety instructions?  Do Aussies have too much respect for American accents?  I ask this because Simon Baker, an Aussie, is in various ads for a bank, dressed like his Mentalist character and using an American accent.  Why would an Australian actor be using a non-Aussie accent for an Australian audience?  I am confused. 

One thing that does not confuse me: why Richard Branson is rich.  Virgin Australia airlines charged for water since all they had was bottled water and for the TV programs.  I guess I prefer having no choice and free entertainment than charging for it.  The other strangeness of travel today was having to walk through the "car park" to get from one terminal to another in Sydney.  Good thing it was not raining.  Oh, it was.  Never mind.

Still, minor complaints as I am squeezing in some fun tourism after a productive and interesting workshop.  Especially since tomorrow I will be diving for the first time and exploring the Great Barrier Reef.  Of course, the Aussies have been telling me that I should make sure that the diving boat does not leave me behind, since there have been a few recent stories about such things happening.  Open Water apparently was not sufficient to scare dive boats into keeping track of their divers. 

Going Native, Eh?



I never expected to be working on Canadian defence issues.  I thought it was very funny that I had a title, Canada Research Chair, where I was neither Canadian nor studying Canada, but then again, the hard scientists are not just studying Canadian microbes….  But Afghanistan has been the gift that has kept giving to me anyway, as my work on NATO and Afghanistan led to an interest in Canada’s effort, which in turn led to much interaction with the Canadian Forces and folks within the Canadian government (and probably a book on Canada and Afghanistan after the current project is done).  While I have now interviewed over two hundred people for the Dave and Steve project on NATO and Afghanistan, perhaps a quarter of these folks are Canadians.  I have had the opportunity not only to talk to the Canadians in Ottawa and Montreal, but also a trip in 2007 to Kandahar and Kabul.  And this effort has led to a proliferation of questions about Canadian foreign and defence policy, including:
  • the CF effort in Libya, as an extension of the Afghanistan experience;
  • the impact of the world upon Canada and vice versa; 
  • the role (or lack of role) of parliament in overseeing the Canadian forces, where Phil Lagassé and I spend much time with warring tweets about Crowns and prerogatives and accountability and oversight;
  •  the effort to develop a whole of government approach where civilians and military folks are supposed to be working together (the subject of my presentation in Australia);
  • larger questions about the future of the Canadian Forces
    • Can Canada afford all three branches?  I say nay;
    • My deep skepticism about Arctic Sovereignty;
    • What is the place of the Canadian military in the making of foreign policy;
  • applying IR scholarship (theories, models) to understanding Canada as well as putting Canada into a Saideman-specific context given my interests in ethnic conflict and in civil-military relations.
I have also developed friendships with other folks on the twitterati list [especially Stephanie Carvin (@StephanieCarvin), Philippe Lagassé (@pmlagasse), Emmett MacFarlane (@EmmMacfarlane), Taylor Owen (@taylor_owen),  Roland Paris (@rolandparis), and Mark Sedra (@msedra)],  so that I end up responding to their tweets  with “vigour” as the aforementioned list indicates.  I guess that means I lack a filter, especially a politeness filter.  Well, we knew that already, eh?

To be clear, I am still most ignorant about other parts of Canadian foreign policy, such as soft-lumber disputes, trade agreements in general, and so on, and my knowledge of Canadian history is mighty thin and selective.  Going to Vimy can only do so much.  

Tweeting, like blogging, allows me to speculate, ruminate and react, building upon my previous research and also blundering into areas where I have no research experience but opinions nonetheless.
I look forward to more tweet-ersations about this incredibly large yet incredibly small country.  Please join the conversation so that I can @reply with vigour.

Monday, July 18, 2011

Cannot Tell Your Murder Victims Without a Program!

Much is astir in Afghanistan with Karzai allies getting whacked in quick succession.  Ahmed Wali Karzai, who was the Capone of Kandahar (and beyond), was killed by a person with whom he was well acquainted.  AWK has been a big challenge for the folks in Southern Afghanistan, especially the Canadians before they left (well, they are still at the base, holding a garage sale) and the Americans.  Why?  Because he was a corrupt power broker who could get things done.  Working with him meant tainting the effort, working around him was pretty close to impossible.

So, what does his death mean, as well as that of Jan Muhammad Khan?  Hell if I know.  I am not an Afghan expert, just an expert (more or less) on the forces shaping the intervention and why the outside actors are doing what they are doing.  But a roomful of folks who study elements of Afgahnistan don't have a clear idea, either.  I am currently in Australia, participating in a workshop on the effort in Afghanistan.  Lots of Afghan experience in the room, but not any clarity on what is going on with these assassinations.  Is it Taliban?  Maybe, but probably not as AWK did enough to alienate plenty of folks.  Is someone systematically trying to undermine President Karzai's support network?  Seems to be the case, but who would that be?  The Taliban, who are increasingly likely to get a better deal from Karzai than from a replacement?  The folks in the north who fear a Karzai deal with the Taliban?  Could it be a rival tribe?  Is it because Karzai has been seeking to change the constitution so that he can have a third term?  The outside actors?  Probably not the last, as it would be way too, um, nuanced and risky.


With AWK, can the governance effort work better now?  Well, given that Karzai replaced his brother with another brother, probably not.  Nepotism is usually not correlated with procedural government, democracy or otherwise.


As Andrew Exum tweeted the other day, anybody who tells you anything definitive about this is talking out of their ass.

Those Damned Shippers

Thinking about HP some more as I rant about relationships (spoilers below for those who did not read the books and have to yet to see the finale):

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Harry Potter and the Box Office Bonanza

I managed to catch the final Harry Potter movie in Canberra.  I was surprised that it was not much more expensive than in North America, but I compensated for that with the really high cab fairs to get there and back.  But it was worth it.  I really enjoyed it, of course, and not surprisingly so with such positive reviews and how I ranked the books.

My preliminary thoughts below as I look forward to seeing the movie again once my daughter comes back from camp.


Carmegeddon? Montreal Scoffs

LA develops a bit of panic over the closing of 405, a key freeway through the city.  I was flying to and beyond LA as this weekend of construction was approaching.  Apparently, it was not as bad as feared.  As I heard more and more about this, I could not help but be amused.  Why?  Because LA was reacting to an announced closing while Montreal was just reeling from a closing of a key part of a highway that surprised even the government.  Contractors went ahead with a project without the government agency being too clear about the timing.

Indeed, Thursday night I was driving home from the Nasty Show (which was very funny, although we think last year's might have been funnier) and was gleeful to just make it on to the highway as they were closing the on-ramp.  Otherwise, I would have had to drive around looking for other entrances to the highway that might have also been closed.  A fun Montreal game--looking for the random on-ramp that is still open.

So, LA prepares the public, and the public reacts by staying home.   Montreal does not even know what is going on and tends to message poorly.  But the Quebec folks would say--we cannot learn from LA.  Montreal is unique, they would say.  Oy, I would say.

Latest Panic Faces Science

I love any graphic that shows that the dependent variable seems to be changing before the independent variable.  Of course, this will not change the minds of those that are committed to this belief.


Friday, July 15, 2011

Infrequent Blogging Ahead

Later today I am headed off to Australia for a short workshop, a quick bit of tourism and then back.  So, I may not have much to post as I hop from plane to plane.  And before I go, I must rip out the carpet out of my bedroom (the easy part) and the staples holding down the foam pad underneath (the hard part).

In lieu of deep thoughts, here is a funny bit from this blog:

EMBED-Slave Leia PSA Starring Kaley Cuoco - Watch more free videos

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Full Hearts Indeed

I just want to thank all y'all who have been making this show:


I watched the finale last week, as the show was on Wednesdays this spring and was not interrupted for the hockey playoffs ironically enough.  So, I have spent the past week catching up on the old podcasts that were released when FNL finished its final run on DirectTV.  For a nice history of the show, go here.  And you can find the Sepinwall/Feinstein podcast and the Sepinwall/Sports Guy podcast here:  http://bit.ly/ghljUn (w/@hitfixdaniel) http://es.pn/pIldQZ (@sportsguy33).

Thoughts about the finale and the show dwell below:

HP vs Nasty

The new and final Harry Potter movie is getting, unsurprisingly great reviews.  However, I will not be seeing it as soon as I would like.  Why?  Because tonight I am going to our first event of the Just for Laugh Festival (one of my favorite parts about Montreal)--the Nasty Show hosted by Roastmaster General Jeff Ross.  Questionable priorities?  No, just limited time.  I head off to Australia tomorrow for a workshop on civil-military integration (how did each country do at the so-called "whole of government" effort) in Afghanistan.  The Nasty Show only has a few spots this week, with the rest of the fest over the next few weeks.  So, I had to choose The Nasty Show, plus I didn't quite realize that I was leaving the same day that HP8 was coming out. 

Oh, and yes, Mrs. Spew and I enjoy some pretty harsh humor.  Previous Nasty Shows have been quite delightful.  I recommend them highly to visitors to Montreal this week.  I will discuss the highlights tomorrow on the blog before I get on the first of many, many planes.

I will try to see HP8 in Canberra as soon as I can (Sunday Aussie time?).  Do enjoy the movie.  I am sure I will have the same feeling with that as I did with the end of Friday Night Lights (to be blogged later today): I cannot wait to get to the end but then don't want it to end.  And Star Wars has taught us it may be better for things to end than to be re-visited.  Alas.