Thursday, February 25, 2010

Holy Self-Deception, Batman!

Check out this link for a quick summary of the misperceptions Saddam Hussein had piled up that made his decision-making in 2002-03 understandable.

He thought that Desert Storm was a victory since he didn't lose power.  Plus he received information from his subordinates that minimized the losses and maximized the successes--wildly so.  This put him in a position to think that the US was a paper tiger, so wishful thinking turned out to be a disease on both sides in 2003. 

Jervis made clear long ago that misperception is rife and can cause heaps of conflict.  And 2003 has proven him right yet again.

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