Is the Clock Ticking?

 KARZAI: “I could be compelled to join the Taliban”

And perhaps Obama might be compelled to do one of the following:

1. 1. Facilitate a coup and see if the strategy works better in Afghanistan than in Vietnam.

   2. Pull the troops out in 2011 or sooner and see what happens to Mr. Karzai.

   3. See if the CIA can do better trying a Cuban strategy, and then let the democratic process of Afghanistan replace the dearly departed Karzai.

Exactly how much leverage does Karzai think he has?  Perhaps the Wall Street Journal got the quote or translation wrong, but I guess Karzai really is in the Tyson (copyright to Bill Simmons) Zone--that nothing Karzai does should surprise us.

This is upsetting even this domestic allies:

"We will have to take powerful action to fix the situation, to go against the government," said Mr. Majidi, who ran Mr. Karzai's re-election campaign in the eastern province of Paktia.

In the board game Junta, there is a card one can play which is simply entitled "coup excuse," which means that the players can then launch a coup.  Other activities in the game can also provide the pretext for a coup.  Seems like Karzai is playing this card, although the President in such scenarios does not usually wind up holding any leverage that the end of the game. 

Remember, counter-insurgency hangs not just on the military side, but on the political side, and Karzai seems most interested in undermining the West.  Either he can change his stands, he can be replaced or marginalized, or we can leave.  It is very hard to build Afghan institutions if the President is set on ripping them down. 

Once again, Obama has been dealt a very difficult hand.  Perhaps Karzai is upset since Bush was so nice to him and Obama is so mean.  That is, Obama expects some kind of performance.

Interesting times ahead.