Sunday, August 7, 2011

Political Science Geek Out Moment of the Week

The New York Times Book Review does a pretty good job of explaining a key concept that I had largely learned by osmosis: Bayesian updating.  How ought we update our beliefs?  I have not read the book that is being reviewed here,"THE THEORY THAT WOULD NOT DIE: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines and Emerged Triumphant From Two Centuries of Controversy" by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne, but I should, given how often Bayes comes up in political science.  

The funny thing is that we live in a time where there seems to be no updating--no matter how much evidence is revealed, folks do not seem to be updating and revising their prior beliefs.  Will this book change my mind about this belief?  Um, maybe.

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