Friday, June 17, 2011

Patience Could be a Virtue

We know, absolutely know, that the 1982 effort by Argentina to reclaim their lost Malvinas (a.k.a. Falklands) was an exemplar of a diversionary war (where leaders use foreign policy to distract restive domestic audiences) because there were public plans in the UK to dismantle a hunk of its navy.  Had Argentina waited just a year or two or three, it could have launched the same effort, and the Brits would have been hard-pressed to do anything about it.

Why mention this now?  Because Argentina seems miffed that the UK is not bargaining with them over the future of the Islands.  I would think that Argentina could and should wait as British bargaining leverage will certainly decline over the next few years as its armed forces are decimated by budget cuts.  In a few years, Argentina could repeat 1982 or just threaten to do so, and the British will not be able to respond as it did under Margaret Thatcher. 

Not that I am recommending a particular policy stance.  More that I am wondering why this is coming up now.  Since I don't know much about Argentina, I am curious about what is driving the timing of this.  Any suggestions from my readers?

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