Yes, we have had the rise and fall of the not-Romney's, but there seems to be absolutely no perspective that the electorates of each state might be somewhat different. So, yes, Santorum rose at the end because he was seen by Iowa's social conservatives as being the only genuine social conservative--translation--he has been an extremist for a long time. But New Hampshire is different, known as a state chock full of libertarians (live free or die, right), so Santorum does not play well. Romney will because he lives nearby. Huntsman might do well, Paul might do well because both are less odious to libertarians than the potentially authoritarian Santorum even if some folks might believe that Ron Paul's libertarianism is really totalitarianism disguised.
But then the campaign moves to South Carolina, so we should see Santorum perhaps do a bit better, Gingrich might play a bit better, and Huntsman, despite his funny daughters will be toast. Romney will continue to be the choice of the establishment that just wants to win, and he will be reviled by social conservatives because his pandering efforts are not successful and perhaps because he is a Mormon. Ron Paul may or may not play well.
The only thing I can really guarantee is that the media will over-react to every event, making it seem like big changes are afoot. Looking back to the Iowa caucuses, never a representative sample of anything, note that the Republicans demonstrated one thing above all--ambivalence.
Oh, the other thing I can guarantee: I am not watching the TV coverage nor the debates. I will pay semi-attention view twitter and the internet and newspapers, but I have better things to do with my evenings than watch the sports coverage that is modern political television analysis. Tonight, that better thing is Attack the Block with the Spew family.*
* I finally figured out how to game zip.ca. If you list non-current movies and current movies, they will only send the older movies, no matter the priority you assign. So, our zip list is currently just the movies of the past year that we want to see the most. We will add the older movies in later once we catch up some.